Country Area - 945,090 km²
Range Area - 389,921 km² (41%)
Protected Range - 43%
Information Quality Index (IQI) - 0.58
CITES Appendix - I
Listing Year - 1990
Tanzania still has important elephant populations, a large elephant range and significant coverage of protected areas, despite heavy losses of elephants in the west and south of the country. With a rapidly growing human population, the country faces serious challenges in conserving elephant populations. The loss of connectivity between core wildlife habitat areas is a growing concern as corridors are becoming blocked by expanding agriculture, human settlements and livestock grazing, and destruction of habitats for logging and charcoal production (TAWIRI, 2010).
In response to the poaching crisis, Tanzania adopted a national strategy to combat poaching and illegal wildlife trade in 2014 (Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism, 2014). The country launched a major anti-poaching operation - Operation Tokomeza, in 2013, which was halted after a few months due to allegations of human rights abuses (Legal and Human Rights Centre, 2015). In 2015 there were significant successes in anti-trafficking efforts, with some arrests of middlemen and poachers (John, 2016; Saria & Tesha, 2016).
Tanzania’s most recent conservation plan, the Tanzania Elephant Management Plan, covered the period from 2010 to 2015 (TAWIRI, 2010).
In recent analyses of seizure data in ETIS, prepared for CITES, Tanzania was identified as a country with a worrying involvement in illegal ivory trade (CITES Secretariat, 2012; Milliken et al., 2013, 2016). Tanzania was requested by the CITES Standing Committee to prepare a National Ivory Action Plan. The plan was finalized in May 2013, and a number of progress reports have been submitted to CITES (CITES, n.d.-a). Information from DNA analyses have indicated that ivory from many large-scale ivory seizures has originated from Tanzania (Milliken et al., 2013; Wasser et al., 2015).
Tanzania is the only country in Eastern Africa with active legal trophy hunting of African elephants, declaring an annual export quota of 400 tusks (as hunting trophies from 200 animals) from 2007 to 2013, and a decreased annual quota of 200 tusks (as hunting trophies from 100 animals) in 2014 and 2015. The United States and the European Union have suspended imports of elephant trophies from Tanzania (EU, 2015; USFWS, 2015b).
The estimated number of elephants in areas surveyed in the last ten years in Tanzania is 50,433 ± 8,502 at the time of the last survey for each area. There may be an additional 1,930 elephants in areas not systematically surveyed in the country. These guesses likely represent a minimum number, and actual numbers could be higher than those reported. Together, this estimate and guess apply to 273,031 km², which is 70% of the estimated known and possible elephant range. There remains an additional 30% of the estimated range for which no elephant population estimates are available.
Tanzania has lost the majority of its estimated elephant population in the last ten years, with a reduction of more than 90,000 elephants from areas with repeat surveys. Some doubts have been expressed about the previous high estimates, particularly in the Selous and Ruaha-Rungwa ecosystems, but even so, there has been a large decline in numbers as a result of poaching for ivory.
Substantial changes have been made to the range map, primarily resulting from better knowledge coming from survey work done by the Tanzania Mammal Atlas Project (Foley, pers. comm., 2016). These include an increase in known range in the Longido area to the north, continuous range between Saadani National Park and Mikumi National Park and an extension of known range in the west towards Mahale National Park and south towards Zambia.
A 2014 aerial sample count of the Moyowosi-Kigosi ecosystem as part of the Great Elephant Census gave an estimate of 1,645 ± 2,389 (TAWIRI, 2015d), which replaces an estimate of 9,541 ± 3,657 in 2006 (TAWIRI, 2007b). To the south is the Sagara-Nyamagoma ecosystem, and the same survey gave an estimate of 503 ± 592, which replaces the 2007 estimate of 4,635 ± 3,028 (Tanzania Wildlife Research Institute, 2007). For Ugalla Game Reserve the estimate was 659 ± 549, with a very high carcass ratio of 26%, which replaces the 2007 figure of 4,133 ± 1,778 (TAWIRI, 2007b). For areas outside Ugalla Game Reserve, an estimate of 146 ± 278 replaces 1,352 ± 837 (TAWIRI, 2007b). Not all of these areas show a statistically significant decline, but the combined results point to a collapse in elephant numbers.
The 2014 aerial sample count of Katavi National Park and Rukwa Game Reserve, part of the Great Elephant Census (TAWIRI, 2015a) gave an estimate of 5,738 ± 2,993 for the entire ecosystem. This estimate replaces one of 6,261 ± 1,344 from 2006 (TAWIRI, 2007b). However, it should be noted that the ‘outside’ survey covered a larger area in 2014 so this estimate is not directly comparable. Other surveys were carried out in 2009 giving an estimate of 6,396 ± 3,763 (TAWIRI, 2009b) and again in 2012 giving an estimate of 7,107 ± 5,149 (TAWIRI, 2015a). None of these surveys have provided statistically different estimates, suggesting that the population has been relatively stable over this period. However, the carcass ratio of 10% in 2014 (TAWIRI, 2015a) is a cause for concern.
The 2015 aerial sample count of the Ruaha-Rungwa ecosystem gave an estimate of 14,283 ± 6,123 (TAWIRI, 2015f) which replaces the 2006 figure of 35,409 ± 11,507 (TAWIRI, 2007b). A high carcass ratio of 15% supported the evidence of a substantial decline in numbers (TAWIRI, 2015f). Two intermediate surveys were carried out. An aerial sample count conducted in 2013 gave an estimate of 20,090 ± 6,433 (TAWIRI, 2013b), with a carcass ratio of 15%. Another aerial sample count conducted in 2014 as part of the Great Elephant Census gave a much lower estimate of 8,272 ± 3,181 (TAWIRI, 2015f) and a carcass ratio of 29%. This is believed to have underestimated true numbers, as elephants appeared to have moved out of Ruaha-Rungwa to an area in the west which was not surveyed (TAWIRI, 2015f). A survey in 2009 gave an estimate of 34,664 ± 8,188 (TAWIRI, 2009b), indicating that the major decline took place after this date. The 2015 survey also covered the Itigi Extension, which had not previously been surveyed, giving an estimate of 1,553 ± 2,956.
Figures from two areas not surveyed in 2014 have been retained from the AESR 2007. These are a guess of 600 from the Inyonga Game Conservation Area between Rungwa and Rukwa from 2002 (Angelides, pers. comm., 2003) and a guess of 200-300 from the Piti East Hunting Block just to the south of Inyonga from 2002 (Hurt, pers. comm., 2002).
The aerial sample count of the Selous-Mikumi ecosystem carried out in 2014 as part of the Great Elephant Census gave an estimate of 14,040 ± 3,252 with a very high carcass ratio of 40% (TAWIRI, 2015b), which replaces the estimate of 70,406 ± 24,843 in 2006 (TAWIRI, 2007a). However, there are concerns that the 2006 survey may have been an over-estimate (TAWIRI, 2009a) and the confidence limits allow for a wide range of population values. Other surveys carried out in 2009 and 2013 gave estimates of 38,975 ± 5,182 with a 2% carcass ratio and 13,084 ± 3,559 with a 30% carcass ratio (TAWIRI, 2009a, 2013a). The combination of a reduction in estimates together with a high carcass ratio indicates that the Selous elephant population has been significantly reduced in the last ten years.
In 2014 there was an estimate of 16 ± 31 from an aerial sample count in the Masasi area south of Selous (TAWIRI, 2015b) and 1,161 ± 1,341 in the Selous Niassa corridor (TAWIRI, 2015b) which replace estimates of 1,076 ± 107 from 2000 (Mduma, pers. comm., 2002a) and 0 from 2000 (TAWIRI, 2001) respectively, although somewhat different areas were surveyed. There was an additional estimate for Selous Niassa, of 4,577 ± 1,126, from 2009 (TAWIRI, 2009a).
During the course of an aerial sample count, part of the Great Elephant Census, of the Burigi-Biharamulo ecosystem in 2014, no elephants were counted in the sampling strips, but a single observation was made of 110 elephants (TAWIRI, 2015c). This replaces a previous estimate of 761 ± 821 from 2000 (Mduma, pers. comm., 2002b). Another count was carried out in 2012 in which 30 elephants were seen (TAWIRI, 2013a). The area has been under constant threat since 1994, with refugee incursions and invasions by cattle (TAWIRI, 2015c).
An aerial total count of Tarangire National Park and surrounding areas in northern Tanzania was carried out in 2014 as part of the Great Elephant Census, giving an estimate of 3,282 for the Tarangire NP and 797 for surrounding areas (TAWIRI, 2015e). These estimates replace 1,119 for the Tarangire NP and 183 for the surrounding areas from 2006 (TAWIRI, 2007b).
An additional 19 elephants were recorded for Mto wa Mbu, an area which had not previously been counted. The population increase is too high to be explained solely through natural increase, and is probably affected by immigration. Lake Manyara National Park was counted in the same aerial total count in 2014 (TAWIRI, 2015e) giving an estimate of 104, which replaces the previous estimate of 36 (TAWIRI, 2007b); there was also a count of 94 in 2009 (TAWIRI, 2009b).
An aerial total count of the Serengeti ecosystem was carried out as part of the Great Elephant Census in 2014, giving an estimate of 6,087 (Mduma et al., 2014) replacing the estimate of 1,472 from 2006 (TAWIRI, 2007b). An aerial total count in 2009 gave an estimate of 2,941 (TAWIRI, 2009b). Movement from Kenya’s Masai Mara ecosystem may account for some of this increase, as well as higher intensity surveys, additional blocks counted and the possibility of immigration of elephants from unsurveyed adjoining areas. An aerial total count of the adjoining Loliondo Game Controlled Area gave a zero estimate in 2009 (TAWIRI, 2009b), compared to one of 88 in 2006 (TAWIRI, 2007b).
An aerial total count of the West Kilimanjaro/Lake Natron system, which connects with Amboseli in Kenya, was carried out in 2013 and gave an estimate of 200 elephants (Kenana et al., 2013). This replaces an aerial total count of 79 from 2002 (TAWIRI, 2003). An old guess of 793 for the adjoining Kilimanjaro Forest Reserve has been retained (Munishi & Maganga, 2003).
The Arusha NP elephant population was estimated at 200 individuals in 2014 (TAWIRI, 2015a), and was not in the AESR 2007, so it is recorded as a new population.
Mkomazi National Park shares an elephant population with the much larger Tsavo National Park in Kenya, and elephant numbers are affected by movements across the border. In 2014 an aerial total count gave an estimate of 59 (Kyale et al., 2014), which replaces a count of 41 from 2005 (Omondi & Bitok, 2005).
A single herd of 30 elephants was seen in the coastal Saadani NP in 2014 (TAWIRI, 2015a), replacing a previous guess of 55 from 1998 (Mduma, pers. comm., 2002b).
Rubondo Island in Lake Victoria has an introduced population of elephants. A dung count was conducted in 2014, resulting in an estimate of 102 ± 35 (Mwambola et al., 2016). This replaces a guess of 20 from 2002 (Borner, pers. comm., 2003).