How to not be taken advantage of, or how to take advantage of people
Framing - time pressure, no perceived alternatives Anchoring - what you offer influences the numbers other people go for, e.g. offering something for £250 makes the other person more likely to consider offers around the £250 mark Adverse selection People will make bets with you if they expect to win them. If bets are zero-sum, this means they think their bet will have a negative EV for you. Risk aversion Replacibility - e.g. the intern example, "I have hundreds of capable applicants waiting" Power dynamics - who gets to frame the bet? Social pressure Sense of obligation or duty Building a rapport - illusion of openness creates sense of being heard - false friendship, offering 'special' deals - exchanging favours (at low cost to you) - labelling concerns (even without actually addressing them) makes the other person feel understood Illusion of authority/domain knowledge Friction - minimise deal friction, maximise friction of alternatives
- Ask "why does the other person want to make this bet with me?"
- Think about possible asymmetry of information (Yiwa's walk bet)
- Challenge framing
Brian recommended the book 'Never Split the Difference'