Develop a deterministic compartmental model in order to simulate the spread of COVID-19 in 12 Provinces of the Lombardy Region.
The first cases of the respiratory disease COVID-19, caused by the novel coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2, in Italy were confirmed on January 31st, 2020. In the following three weeks, clusters of cases were detected in the northern parts of Italy, including the region of Lombardy. By March 8th, 2020, the whole of Lombardy was placed into lockdown and on the following day all of Italy, after which all non-essential businesses were closed and movement of people was severely restricted. This report simulates the spread of COVID-19 in the first weeks in the region of Lombardy. The first exercise fits a calibrated compartmental epidemiological model, the SEIR model, to each region’s real case numbers. The second exercise expands the model by a contact-matrix based on age-groups’ interactions and the third exercise explores stochasticity related to the spread of the disease and restrictive measures are simulated to slow down the spread of the virus.