diff --git a/lectures/markov_chains_I.md b/lectures/markov_chains_I.md index 0633886e..3eeecc40 100644 --- a/lectures/markov_chains_I.md +++ b/lectures/markov_chains_I.md @@ -82,16 +82,15 @@ In other words, If $P$ is a stochastic matrix, then so is the $k$-th power $P^k$ for all $k \in \mathbb N$. -Checking this in {ref}`the last exercise ` below. +You are asked to check this in {ref}`an exercise ` below. ### Markov chains + Now we can introduce Markov chains. Before defining a Markov chain rigorously, we'll give some examples. -(Among other things, defining a Markov chain will clarify a connection between **stochastic matrices** and **Markov chains**.) - (mc_eg2)= #### Example 1 @@ -110,7 +109,7 @@ Here there are three **states** * "mr" represents mild recession * "sr" represents severe recession -The arrows represent **transition probabilities** over one month. +The arrows represent transition probabilities over one month. For example, the arrow from mild recession to normal growth has 0.145 next to it. @@ -120,7 +119,7 @@ The arrow from normal growth back to normal growth tells us that there is a 97% probability of transitioning from normal growth to normal growth (staying in the same state). -Note that these are *conditional* probabilities --- the probability of +Note that these are conditional probabilities --- the probability of transitioning from one state to another (or staying at the same one) conditional on the current state.