This tool is designed to find the best quest or hunt for farming a monster part. To do this, it calculates the expected value for each quest, which is the average number of rewards from doing the quest many times. For easy display, it’s listed as the expected value from doing the quest 100 times. This value can be greater than 100, which indicates that on average, you can expect to get more than 1 of the item in each run of the quest. Expected value is linear, meaning that if you do half the number of quests, the expected value will be half. If you do one quest, the expected value is 1/100th of the shown value.
Remember that expected value is an average - in a single run you could get none or a lot less than expected and you could get more than expected. By the law of large numbers, if you do the quest many many times, it’s very likely that your average will be close to the expected average. If you do the quest only a few times, it’s not surprising or unlucky to get less than expected.
The "Poogie Recommends" section is all you need if you don’t care about the details. Here is a snippet of recommendation results for "Zinogre Jasper":
*** Poogie Recommends *** > G [No skills ] (QUEST) Advanced: Fury on the Mount G cap (114.40) [Capture God ] (QUEST) Advanced: Fury on the Mount G cap (124.90) [Amazing Luck] (QUEST) Advanced: Fury on the Mount G cap (164.20) > HR [No skills ] (QUEST) The Caravaneer's Challenge HR kill (28.13) [Carving God ] (QUEST) The Caravaneer's Challenge HR kill (37.03) [Amazing Luck] (QUEST) The Caravaneer's Challenge HR kill (34.09)
For each rank, it recommends the best quest and strategy for getting a Jasper. LR is not listed because the item is not available from low rank quests or hunts. The numbers given at the end in parenthesis are the expected values. If luck, capture, or carvings kills can give you a better expected value, they will be listed as well. This can give you an idea which armor skills may be worth using to farm the item.
These recommendations and expected values assume that you break all parts of the monster and cut and carve the tail. For details on which of these actually give you the item, scroll to the detailed entry for the quest or hunt below.
If hunting a monster in quests that don’t give the item as a reward gives better results than a quest that does have the item, or if the item simply isn’t available as a quest reward, hunts will be recommended instead of quests.
After the recommendations, the monster that have the item are listed, along with detailed expected values:
(HUNT) Zinogre HR
Body Carve 1 9.00 / 100 ( 3 each) 9.75 10.50 12.00 14.34
Tail Carve 1 2.00 / 100 ( 2 each) 2.50 3.00 4.00 5.56
Shiny Drop 1 2.00 / 100 ( 2 each)
Capture 1 5.38 / 100 ( 2 each) 6.00 7.38 8.00
Break Head 1 3.00 / 100 ( 3 each)
= Totals
Kill 14.00 to 22.91 / 100
Cap 10.38 to 13.00 / 100
Shiny 2.00 / 100
The totals can be used to figure out if killing or capture the monster will yield better results on average. The first value is the expected number of rewards from 100 hunts, assuming no skills. The second value assumes the best possible armor skill - Capture God for cap, and Carving God for kill. Shiny drops are not included in the total, but can be multiplied by the average number of shinys you get per quest and added to the carve or cap total. This is one of the advantages of using expected value instead of probability of at least one: it is very easy to calculate.
The previous lines give a breakdown of the expected value from each source, with the following format:
Source StackSize ExpectedValue (DropChance each) [EVWithSkill1, EVWithSkill2, ...]
For the quest section the source is A, B, or Sub, for the first line, second line, and Sub quest line. The ExpectedValue assumes no food or armor skills and takes into account StackSize. For quest rewards, cap rewards, and carves, the extra values at the end are for armor skills, starting from the weakest version to the best version. For example on quest lines the values are for Good Luck, Great Luck, and Amazing Luck.
Finally quests are listed, which combine the quest reward expected values and the carve/cap expected values from hunting the monster which are also listed in the HUNT sections above.
(QUEST) See the Lightning (Caravan 6* HR)
Goal: Hunt a Zinogre
Sub : Wound the Zinogre's back
= Quest
A 1 4.71 / 100 ( 1 each) 5.24 5.90 6.70
Sub 1 2.49 / 100 ( 1 each) 2.87 3.31 3.82
= Zinogre HR
Body Carve 1 9.00 / 100 ( 3 each) 9.75 10.50 12.00 14.34
Tail Carve 1 2.00 / 100 ( 2 each) 2.50 3.00 4.00 5.56
Shiny Drop 1 2.00 / 100 ( 2 each)
Capture 1 5.38 / 100 ( 2 each) 6.00 7.38 8.00
Break Head 1 3.00 / 100 ( 3 each)
= Totals
Kill 21.19 to 30.10 / 100
Cap 17.57 to 20.19 / 100
Shiny 2.00 / 100
Items that are only available by trading other monster parts at the Wyporium are supported by showing recommendations for the item you trade for that part. For example, "Zinogre Skymerald" can be traded for "Nargacuga Mantle". When searching for the mantle, this is displayed on top of the results for skymerald:
*** Wyporium trade for 'Zinogre Skymerald'
Unlocked by quest 'Advanced: Bolt of Pink (Guild 9* G)'
*** Poogie Recommends ***
> G
[No skills ] (QUEST) Advanced: Fury on the Mount G kill (53.97)
[Capture God ] (QUEST) Advanced: Fury on the Mount G cap (54.97)
[Carving God ] (QUEST) Advanced: Fury on the Mount G kill (68.22)
[Amazing Luck] (QUEST) Advanced: Fury on the Mount G kill (70.57)
...
These are known issues in the recommendation engine which I plan on fixing:
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I’d like to list more details in the recommendation section so you don’t need to scroll down to see which breaks and shinys you should try for.
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Assumes 3 body carvers for all monsters. Some like Gravios have actually have4.
The monster hunter database used by this recommendation engine is a work in progress, and in some places the data is in complete or incorrect.
In particular:
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Drop rates are determined by the community and not provided by Capcom, so they may be slightly off from the actual values used by the game.
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Some quests rewards have total probabilities that add up to more than 100. It now normalizes the values so the total is 100, but the data is still suspect.
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Some quests are not linked to all the monsters you hunt in that quest. When this happens the expected values will not be correct. This is easy to see when the quest goal says something like "Hunt MONSTER1 and MONSTER2", and MONSTER2 has the item, but it’s not listed below. The monsters in a quest are found from the database, not from interpreting the goal text.
There are also assumptions made by the recommendation engine about how the game determines rewards that may not be correct. Some examples:
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Quest line A always has at least 4 rewards, line B always has at least 2, and C always has at least one. This is probably a good approximation for most quests, but it may vary between quests.
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Probabilities for getting more than the minimum rewards may be off, and the way the number of rewards is determined may even be wrong.