OVERVIEW | MENA - Red Sea Crisis

[Holly-Transport]

Client Contact Email(s)

[email protected], [email protected]

Project Charge Code

AA-P180205-ASA-TF0C0986

Project Manager

Holly Krambeck

Project Sharepoint URL

https://worldbankgroup.sharepoint.com/:f:/t/DevelopmentDataPartnershipCommunity-WBGroup/EoPKGdniEgNOsFM15KKAipAB1Zt35TWLhfnS51oSwvuJRQ

Project Web Book URL

http://datapartnership.org/red-sea-monitoring/

Link to Proposal and Work Plan Shared with Client

n/a

Project Assignment

The Red Sea shipping crisis is a global crisis that began in October 2023, when missile attacks on ships and tankers traversing the Red Sea caused hundreds of vessels to avoid the Suez Canal. The attacks are concentrated near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a 20-mile-wide chokepoint for maritime traffic. The World Bank Country Economics teams in Egypt, Yemen, and Djibouti seek to monitor the status and impacts of the crisis on their respective and regional economies.

The assignment includes the following deliverables:

• Maritime Choke Point Trends Monitor for the Suez Canal, Bab el-Mandreb Straight, and the Cape of Good Hope
• Port Call Trends Monitor for the following ports: Aden, Al Ahmadi, Al Aqabah, Al Mukalla, As Suways, Djibouti, Duba. Duba Bulk Plant Tanker Terminal, El-Adabiya, Jiddah, Jiddah Oil, King Fahd Port, North Ain Sukhna Port, Rabigh, Safaga, and Yanbu
• Spillover Monitor for trade arriving in ports in Egypt, Djibouti, and Yemen
• Missing Ships Estimator for ships that may have disabled their transponders (forthcoming)
• Conflict Location and Trends Monitor derived from ACLED data for Egypt's Red Sea Riviera through OpenStreetMap point of interest visits using GPS mobility data

The assignment also includes combinine these data products to prepare high-level analytics and indicators, such as:

• Combined conflict and maritime traffic diversion trends analysis
• Combined maritime traffic diversion and global shipping price trends analysis

Project Timeline

October 3rd : We will be able to present the updates to the existing charts in the Red Sea region. On the call we can discuss what changed since the last analysis and what that means for the next brief.
October 17th: We will be able to complete the new conflict and maritime analysis for the Strait of Hormuz.
October 24th: New analysis that will help reflect on how shipping conflict has impacted global supply chains + feedback for Strait of Hormuz. We'll present some ideas on the next call on the kind of analysis that is possible.

[SahitiSarva]

Minutes 23rd September

New Analyses requested - what we can do by end of September and beginning of October.

1. Who are the ships coming through the red sea?
2. What has changed from the last update w.r.t conflict and maritime activity? -- maybe smuggling, ships should've dropped because the big actors in this space have dropped out
3. Add Strait of Hormuz to the analysis and regionally extend the analysis to that part as well. Understand what is happening with the Panama Canal. Keep the Panama Canal as a footnote to what we do but keep the brief fairly regional.
4. Is the Straight of Malay connected to this?
5. Peak around New years and christmas occurs 6 months before and the Europeans will try to replenish some of the stocks, so what we're observing now might come back later in the year. Take a look at the trends from the year before to see if the trade has gone up this year compared to last year. Compare May and October to each other.
6. Does this impact global shipping price and insurance rates?

Phase II: Transport Diversion
7. Globally maritime trade activity has declined. There is a shift between maritime transport to air transport. How did maritime get redircted to land transport.
Expert in Shipping: Martin Humphreys (WB).

Notes --
Extreme events of interest are the sinking of ships. One of them is associated with an oil spill. Nice to have a paragraph on that. What is the ecological impact of the oil spill. Localized but significant impact and it can actually be geolocated very well. Documented and commented on in one paragraph.

Timelines --
They're having a brief #2 on food and security scheduled for October. We need to use October to write the next brief as of mid October. November 1 is the final deadline. Give them 10 days or 2 weeks to write it up.

Questions for them - Do they have another update after November?

[SahitiSarva]

Notes from October 3rd Check-In

Shipping

1. CO2 emissions chart needs to embedded within the web-book format
2. Some charts put in the report need to be added to the web-book - total distance travelled by red sea vessels, total distance traveled by red sea

Conflict

1. Have a map on just the houthi related attacks as a bar chart
2. separate tankers and cargo ships
3. Which country ships have been impacted
4. Add the oil slicks with the conflict maps

General Notes -

I. Environmental Impact of Red Sea Crisis Section

• Joanne made a map of the oil spills, before and after the attacks on the red sea region. Can we put some numbers behind how much more oil spills happened? `
• Oil spills details are in this document on SharePoint`
• Were the undersea internet cables affected by the tankers?
• Can we link emissions related data from Andres to the envrionmental impact section?

Narrative -
A quarter of the ships have generated 150% increase in oil slicks.

[SahitiSarva]

For October 17th - Extension into the Persian Gulf.

[SahitiSarva]

Notes from October 21st Check-In (the originally planed 17th check-in was moved to 21st)

Questions and improvements for @andresfchamorro

• Why is there only a 203 month decline in the number of ships in the Strait of Hormuz?
• Explain what 'Total Distance Traveled by Red Sea' means in the notebook

Questions for @SahitiSarva

• Make a map comparison of April 2024 vs now
• Change the daily red sea crisis to weekly
• Get to the bottom of the ship owners from Andres's databaase
• Overlay Joanne's oil spills
• Remove protests from the events

[SahitiSarva]

Notes from the 31st October Check-In

• We presented charts for the presentation which is supposed to serve as a structure for the brief (written document)
• Zeljko identified that next steps are that a narrative be set up using this PPT as a structure
• They want to meet November 15th to look at the brief
• The brief has two parts - retrospective and forward-looking. The PPT is supposed to serve as a basis for the retrospective component.
• They want the Data Lab team to update the charts till the end of October. @

@andresfchamorro

• to adjust the scales on the line chart showing drop in vessels in the chokepoints.
• We also need to see if we can create a prettier version of the map showing change in routes.

@SahitiSarva

• to add a cumulative line to the red sea conflicts,
• create a dynamic bubble chart and
• add some text for the conflict component/