diff --git a/DESCRIPTION b/DESCRIPTION index bfe9758..c100cfe 100644 --- a/DESCRIPTION +++ b/DESCRIPTION @@ -1,6 +1,6 @@ Package: tswgewrapped Title: Helpful wrappers for 'tswge', 'vars' and 'nnfor' time series packages -Version: 1.8.10.5 +Version: 1.8.10.6 Authors@R: c( person("David", "Josephs", email = "josephsd@smu.edu", role = c("aut", "cre")), person("Nikhil", "Gupta", email = "guptan@smu.edu", role = c("aut"))) @@ -31,6 +31,7 @@ Imports: Rfast, tibble, tictoc, + tidyr (>= 1.0.0), tswge, vars RoxygenNote: 7.1.0 diff --git a/R/ModelCombine.R b/R/ModelCombine.R index 83731a6..18ffcbc 100644 --- a/R/ModelCombine.R +++ b/R/ModelCombine.R @@ -22,6 +22,7 @@ ModelCombine = R6::R6Class( #' @return A new `ModelCombine` object. initialize = function(data = NA, var_interest = NA, uni_models = NA, var_models = NA, mlp_models = NA, verbose = 0) { + self$set_verbose(verbose = verbose) private$set_data(data = data) private$set_var_interest(var_interest = var_interest) private$set_uni_compare_objects(models = uni_models) @@ -51,7 +52,61 @@ ModelCombine = R6::R6Class( set_verbose = function(verbose = 0){ private$verbose = verbose }, #### General Public Methods ---- - + + #' @description Plots the simple forecast for each model + #' @param lastn If TRUE, this will plot the forecasts forthe last n.ahead values of the realization (Default: FALSE) + #' @param newxreg The future exogenous variable values to be used for prediction. + #' Applicable to models that require the values of the new exogenous variables to be provided for future forecasts, e.g. nnfor::mlp() + #' @param limits If TRUE, this will also plot the lower and upper limits of the forecasts (Default: FALSE) + #' @param zoom A number indicating how much to zoom into the plot. + #' For example zoom = 50 will only plot the last 50 points of the realization + #' Useful for cases where realizations that are long and n.ahead is small. + plot_simple_forecasts = function(lastn = FALSE, newxreg = NA, limits = FALSE, zoom = NA){ + + forecasts = data.frame() + + mlp_compare_objects = private$get_mlp_compare_objects() + if (length(mlp_compare_objects) >= 1 & lastn == TRUE){ + stop(paste0("Your '", self$classname, "' object has a ModelCompareNNforCaret object which does not support plotting simple forecasts with lastn = TRUE. Please make lastn = FALSE and rerun with xreg passed.")) + } + for (i in seq_along(mlp_compare_objects)){ + subset_results = mlp_compare_objects[[i]]$plot_simple_forecasts(lastn = lastn, newxreg = newxreg, limits = limits, zoom = zoom, plot = FALSE) + + filtered = subset_results$plot_data %>% + private$filter_best_caret_model(caret_compare_object = mlp_compare_objects[[i]]) + + forecasts = dplyr::bind_rows(forecasts, filtered) + } + + uni_compare_objects = private$get_uni_compare_objects() + for (i in seq_along(uni_compare_objects)){ + subset_results = uni_compare_objects[[i]]$plot_simple_forecasts(lastn = lastn, newxreg = newxreg, limits = limits, zoom = zoom, plot = FALSE) + forecasts = dplyr::bind_rows(forecasts, subset_results$plot_data) + } + + var_compare_objects = private$get_var_compare_objects() + for (i in seq_along(var_compare_objects)){ + subset_results = var_compare_objects[[i]]$plot_simple_forecasts(lastn = lastn, newxreg = newxreg, limits = limits, zoom = zoom, plot = FALSE) + forecasts = dplyr::bind_rows(forecasts, subset_results$plot_data) + } + + p = ggplot2::ggplot() + + ggplot2::geom_line(forecasts %>% dplyr::filter(Model == "Actual"), mapping = ggplot2::aes(x=Time, y=f, color = Model), size = 1) + + ggplot2::geom_line(forecasts %>% dplyr::filter(Model != "Actual"), mapping = ggplot2::aes(x=Time, y=f, color = Model), size = 0.75) + + ggplot2::ylab("Simple Forecasts") + + if (limits == TRUE){ + p = p + + ggplot2::geom_line(forecasts, mapping = ggplot2::aes(x=Time, y=ll, color = Model), linetype = "dashed", size = 0.5) + + ggplot2::geom_line(forecasts, mapping = ggplot2::aes(x=Time, y=ul, color = Model), linetype = "dashed", size = 0.5) + } + + print(p) + + return(forecasts) + + }, + #' @description Plots the forecasts per batch for all models #' @param only_sliding If TRUE, this will only plot the batch forecasts #' for the models that used window ASE calculations @@ -231,22 +286,110 @@ ModelCombine = R6::R6Class( subset_results = mlp_compare_objects[[i]]$get_tabular_metrics(only_sliding = only_sliding, ases = ases) %>% private$filter_best_caret_model(caret_compare_object = mlp_compare_objects[[i]]) - # best_model_id = mlp_compare_objects[[i]]$get_best_model_id() - # - # subset_results = subset_results %>% - # dplyr::filter(Model == best_model_id) - results = rbind(results, subset_results) } return(results) }, + #' @description Computes the simple forecasts using all the models + #' @param lastn If TRUE, this will get the forecasts for the last n.ahead values of the realization (Default: FALSE). + #' If there is a ModelCompareNNforCaret object passed to this object, then lastn must be TRUE. + #' @param newxreg The future exogenous variable values to be used for prediction. + #' Applicable to models that require the values of the new exogenous variables to be provided for future forecasts, e.g. nnfor::mlp() + #' @return The forecasted values + compute_simple_forecasts = function(lastn = FALSE, newxreg = NA){ + + forecasts = data.frame() + + mlp_compare_objects = private$get_mlp_compare_objects() + if (length(mlp_compare_objects) >= 1 & lastn == TRUE){ + stop(paste0("Your '", self$classname, "' object has a ModelCompareNNforCaret object which does not support plotting simple forecasts with lastn = TRUE. Please make lastn = FALSE and rerun with xreg passed.")) + } + for (i in seq_along(mlp_compare_objects)){ + subset_results = mlp_compare_objects[[i]]$plot_simple_forecasts(lastn = lastn, newxreg = newxreg, limits = FALSE, plot = FALSE) + + filtered = subset_results$forecasts %>% + private$filter_best_caret_model(caret_compare_object = mlp_compare_objects[[i]]) + + forecasts = dplyr::bind_rows(forecasts, filtered) + } + + uni_compare_objects = private$get_uni_compare_objects() + for (i in seq_along(uni_compare_objects)){ + subset_results = uni_compare_objects[[i]]$plot_simple_forecasts(lastn = lastn, newxreg = newxreg, limits = FALSE, plot = FALSE) + forecasts = dplyr::bind_rows(forecasts, subset_results$forecasts) + } + + var_compare_objects = private$get_var_compare_objects() + for (i in seq_along(var_compare_objects)){ + subset_results = var_compare_objects[[i]]$plot_simple_forecasts(lastn = lastn, newxreg = newxreg, limits = FALSE, plot = FALSE) + forecasts = dplyr::bind_rows(forecasts, subset_results$forecasts) + } + + return(forecasts) + }, + #' @description Creates an ensemble model based on all the models provided create_ensemble = function(){ + data_for_model = self$get_tabular_metrics(only_sliding = TRUE, ases = FALSE) %>% + dplyr::distinct() %>% # Remove duplicate entries for Model = 'Realization' + assertr::verify(assertr::has_all_names("Time", "Model", "f")) %>% + tidyr::pivot_wider(id_cols = Time, names_from = Model, values_from = f) %>% + stats::na.omit() %>% + dplyr::select(-Time) + + print(str(data_for_model)) + + glm_ensemble = glm(formula = Realization ~ ., data = data_for_model) + + if (private$get_verbose() >= 1){ + print(summary(glm_ensemble)) + } + private$set_ensemble_model(model = glm_ensemble) + }, + + #' @description Makes a prediction based on the ensemble model + #' @param naive If TRUE, the ensemble will be a simple mean of the prediction of all the models + #' If FALSE, the ensemble will use a glm model created from the batch predictions of all the models + #' @param comb If 'naive' = TRUE, how to combine the predictions. Allowed values are 'mean' or 'median' + #' @param newxreg The future exogenous variable values to be used for prediction. + #' Applicable to models that require the values of the new exogenous variables to be provided for future forecasts, e.g. nnfor::mlp() + #' @return The predictions from each model along with the ensemble prediction + predict_ensemble = function(naive = FALSE, comb = 'median', newxreg = NA){ + + if (naive == TRUE){ + if (comb != 'median' & comb != 'mean'){ + warning(paste0("You are using a naive model, but the value of comb is set to '", comb, "' . The allowed values are 'median' or 'mean'. This will be set to the default value of 'median'.")) + comb = 'median' + } + } + + forecasts = self$compute_simple_forecasts(lastn = FALSE, newxreg = newxreg) %>% + assertr::verify(assertr::has_all_names("Time", "Model", "f")) %>% + tidyr::pivot_wider(id_cols = Time, names_from = Model, values_from = f) %>% + stats::na.omit() %>% + dplyr::select(-Time) + + if (naive == TRUE){ + if (comb == 'mean'){ + forecasts = forecasts %>% + dplyr::mutate(ensemble = rowMeans(.)) + } + if (comb == 'median'){ + forecasts = forecasts %>% + dplyr::mutate(ensemble = Rfast::rowMedians(as.matrix(.))) + } + } + else{ + forecasts = forecasts %>% + dplyr::mutate(ensemble = stats::predict(private$get_ensemble_model(), newdata = forecasts)) %>% + dplyr::mutate_if(is.numeric, as.double) # Converts Named numeric (output of predict) to simple numeric + } + + return(forecasts) } - ), @@ -258,6 +401,7 @@ ModelCombine = R6::R6Class( var_models = NA, mlp_models = NA, verbose = NA, + ensemble_model = NA, set_data = function(data){ if (all(is.na(data))){ stop("You have not provided the time series data. Please provide to continue.") } @@ -285,58 +429,12 @@ ModelCombine = R6::R6Class( }, get_mlp_compare_objects = function(){return(private$mlp_models)}, - get_len_x = function(){return(nrow(self$get_data()))}, - - compute_simple_forecasts = function(lastn){ - ## TODO: Needed for NNFOR - ## But add an argument xreg - ## Used by plot_simple_forecasts in the base class - - message("This function is not supported for nnfor::mlp at this time.") - - results = dplyr::tribble(~Model, ~Time, ~f, ~ll, ~ul) - # - # if (lastn == FALSE){ - # data_start = 1 - # data_end = private$get_len_x() - # train_data = self$get_data()[data_start:data_end, ] - # - # } - # else{ - # data_start = 1 - # data_end = private$get_len_x() - self$get_n.ahead() - # train_data = self$get_data()[data_start:data_end, ] - # } - # - # from = data_end + 1 - # to = data_end + self$get_n.ahead() - # - # # Define Train Data - # - # for (name in names(private$get_models())){ - # - # var_interest = self$get_var_interest() - # k = private$get_models()[[name]][['k_final']] - # trend_type = private$get_models()[[name]][['trend_type']] - # - # # Fit model for the batch - # varfit = vars::VAR(train_data, p=k, type=trend_type) - # - # # Forecast for the batch - # forecasts = stats::predict(varfit, n.ahead=self$get_n.ahead()) - # forecasts = forecasts$fcst[[var_interest]] ## Get the forecasts only for the dependent variable - # - # results = results %>% - # dplyr::add_row(Model = name, - # Time = (from:to), - # f = forecasts[, 'fcst'], - # ll = forecasts[, 'lower'], - # ul = forecasts[, 'upper']) - # - # } - # - return(results) + set_ensemble_model = function(model){ + private$ensemble_model = model }, + get_ensemble_model = function(){return(private$ensemble_model)}, + + get_len_x = function(){return(nrow(self$get_data()))}, filter_best_caret_model = function(data, caret_compare_object){ # Given a caret_compare_object and a dataframe 'data' that has a 'Model' column diff --git a/R/ModelCompareBase.R b/R/ModelCompareBase.R index f25ab5c..582d177 100644 --- a/R/ModelCompareBase.R +++ b/R/ModelCompareBase.R @@ -225,7 +225,8 @@ ModelCompareBase = R6::R6Class( #' @param zoom A number indicating how much to zoom into the plot. #' For example zoom = 50 will only plot the last 50 points of the realization #' Useful for cases where realizations that are long and n.ahead is small. - plot_simple_forecasts = function(lastn = FALSE, newxreg = NA, limits = FALSE, zoom = NA){ + #' @param plot If FALSE the plots are not plotted; useful when you want to just return the data (Default = TRUE) + plot_simple_forecasts = function(lastn = FALSE, newxreg = NA, limits = FALSE, zoom = NA, plot = TRUE){ forecasts = private$compute_simple_forecasts_with_validation(lastn = lastn, newxreg = newxreg) @@ -236,6 +237,7 @@ ModelCompareBase = R6::R6Class( ll = self$get_data_var_interest(), ul = self$get_data_var_interest()) + if (!is.na(zoom)){ zoom = private$validate_zoom(zoom) @@ -246,20 +248,22 @@ ModelCompareBase = R6::R6Class( dplyr::filter(Time >= start) } - p = ggplot2::ggplot() + - ggplot2::geom_line(results %>% dplyr::filter(Model == "Actual"), mapping = ggplot2::aes(x=Time, y=f, color = Model), size = 1) + - ggplot2::geom_line(results %>% dplyr::filter(Model != "Actual"), mapping = ggplot2::aes(x=Time, y=f, color = Model), size = 0.75) + - ggplot2::ylab("Simple Forecasts") - - if (limits == TRUE){ - p = p + - ggplot2::geom_line(results, mapping = ggplot2::aes(x=Time, y=ll, color = Model), linetype = "dashed", size = 0.5) + - ggplot2::geom_line(results, mapping = ggplot2::aes(x=Time, y=ul, color = Model), linetype = "dashed", size = 0.5) + if (plot == TRUE){ + p = ggplot2::ggplot() + + ggplot2::geom_line(results %>% dplyr::filter(Model == "Actual"), mapping = ggplot2::aes(x=Time, y=f, color = Model), size = 1) + + ggplot2::geom_line(results %>% dplyr::filter(Model != "Actual"), mapping = ggplot2::aes(x=Time, y=f, color = Model), size = 0.75) + + ggplot2::ylab("Simple Forecasts") + + if (limits == TRUE){ + p = p + + ggplot2::geom_line(results, mapping = ggplot2::aes(x=Time, y=ll, color = Model), linetype = "dashed", size = 0.5) + + ggplot2::geom_line(results, mapping = ggplot2::aes(x=Time, y=ul, color = Model), linetype = "dashed", size = 0.5) + } + + print(p) } - print(p) - - return(forecasts) + return(list(forecasts = forecasts, plot_data = results)) }, diff --git a/R/ModelCompareNNforCaret.R b/R/ModelCompareNNforCaret.R index 6f54fdf..d431325 100644 --- a/R/ModelCompareNNforCaret.R +++ b/R/ModelCompareNNforCaret.R @@ -129,7 +129,7 @@ ModelCompareNNforCaret = R6::R6Class( compute_simple_forecasts = function(lastn, newxreg){ if (lastn == TRUE){ - message("This class does not support lastn = TRUE since the model has already been built using the entire data. Hence, lastn will be set to FALSE.") + message(paste0("The '", self$classname, "' class does not support lastn = TRUE since the model has already been built using the entire data. Hence, lastn will be set to FALSE.")) lastn = FALSE } diff --git a/build/tswgewrapped_1.8.10.6.tar.gz b/build/tswgewrapped_1.8.10.6.tar.gz new file mode 100644 index 0000000..322a900 Binary files /dev/null and b/build/tswgewrapped_1.8.10.6.tar.gz differ diff --git a/inst/extdata/caret_model_train_bs120.rds b/inst/extdata/caret_model_train_bs120.rds new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d23e040 Binary files /dev/null and b/inst/extdata/caret_model_train_bs120.rds differ diff --git a/inst/extdata/caret_model_batch_ase_train.rds b/inst/extdata/caret_model_train_bs130.rds similarity index 100% rename from inst/extdata/caret_model_batch_ase_train.rds rename to inst/extdata/caret_model_train_bs130.rds diff --git a/inst/extdata/ensemble_glm_train_bs120.csv b/inst/extdata/ensemble_glm_train_bs120.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2631e64 --- /dev/null +++ b/inst/extdata/ensemble_glm_train_bs120.csv @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +"reps19_hd2_sdetFALSE","Univar A","Univar B","Univar C","AIC Both - R","AIC Trend - R","ensemble" +8.25875556986836,8.2597570927,8.2642322988,8.2642322988,8.26087898347003,8.26020162823867,8.2643919071676 +8.26214895340459,8.26962681553,8.27937511312,8.27937511312,8.26549897076232,8.26297965565337,8.27499807022726 diff --git a/inst/extdata/ensemble_naive_mean_train_bs120.csv b/inst/extdata/ensemble_naive_mean_train_bs120.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..901cbae --- /dev/null +++ b/inst/extdata/ensemble_naive_mean_train_bs120.csv @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +"reps19_hd2_sdetFALSE","Univar A","Univar B","Univar C","AIC Both - R","AIC Trend - R","ensemble" +8.25875556986836,8.2597570927,8.2642322988,8.2642322988,8.26087898347003,8.26020162823867,8.26134297864617 +8.26214895340459,8.26962681553,8.27937511312,8.27937511312,8.26549897076232,8.26297965565337,8.26983410359838 diff --git a/inst/extdata/ensemble_naive_median_train_bs120.csv b/inst/extdata/ensemble_naive_median_train_bs120.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c41d164 --- /dev/null +++ b/inst/extdata/ensemble_naive_median_train_bs120.csv @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +"reps19_hd2_sdetFALSE","Univar A","Univar B","Univar C","AIC Both - R","AIC Trend - R","ensemble" +8.25875556986836,8.2597570927,8.2642322988,8.2642322988,8.26087898347003,8.26020162823867,8.26054030585435 +8.26214895340459,8.26962681553,8.27937511312,8.27937511312,8.26549897076232,8.26297965565337,8.26756289314616 diff --git a/inst/extdata/mdl_combine_ases1_train_bs120.csv b/inst/extdata/mdl_combine_ases1_train_bs120.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..dae70fb --- /dev/null +++ b/inst/extdata/mdl_combine_ases1_train_bs120.csv @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +"Model","ASE","Time_Test_Start","Time_Test_End","Batch" +"Univar A",3.12308225764145e-05,119,120,1 +"Univar A",8.31434200888188e-05,121,122,2 +"Univar A",8.99107613814644e-05,123,124,3 +"Univar A",9.23963889730699e-05,125,126,4 +"Univar A",3.58922274584229e-05,127,128,5 +"Univar A",3.96032672843582e-05,129,130,6 +"Univar A",5.75283877703727e-05,131,132,7 +"Univar A",0.000179876397666713,133,134,8 +"Univar B",3.11894455528081e-05,119,120,1 +"Univar B",0.000195071292086915,121,122,2 +"Univar B",2.0555112379594e-05,123,124,3 +"Univar B",3.4537354499041e-06,125,126,4 +"Univar B",0.000238009765613329,127,128,5 +"Univar B",5.00922427881027e-05,129,130,6 +"Univar B",3.61710997771645e-06,131,132,7 +"Univar B",0.000133945482877433,133,134,8 +"Univar C",0.000133945482877433,133,134,1 +"AIC Both - R",9.53415765907678e-05,119,120,1 +"AIC Both - R",5.63432845915735e-05,121,122,2 +"AIC Both - R",0.000162816178046665,123,124,3 +"AIC Both - R",5.09735054355053e-06,125,126,4 +"AIC Both - R",0.000149402359459911,127,128,5 +"AIC Both - R",0.000352126894297292,129,130,6 +"AIC Both - R",0.00111179164980607,131,132,7 +"AIC Both - R",9.41956795816891e-05,133,134,8 +"AIC Trend - R",4.07323799036183e-06,119,120,1 +"AIC Trend - R",0.000225427731940963,121,122,2 +"AIC Trend - R",1.84818669129706e-05,123,124,3 +"AIC Trend - R",9.46361043687706e-06,125,126,4 +"AIC Trend - R",0.00019476432486588,127,128,5 +"AIC Trend - R",0.00032344234699412,129,130,6 +"AIC Trend - R",0.000689865028845393,131,132,7 +"AIC Trend - R",2.47277635958661e-06,133,134,8 +"reps19_hd2_sdetFALSE",4.01677184126864e-05,119,120,1 +"reps19_hd2_sdetFALSE",0.000272858996316274,121,122,2 +"reps19_hd2_sdetFALSE",0.000262383678444808,123,124,3 +"reps19_hd2_sdetFALSE",1.96260233679372e-05,125,126,4 +"reps19_hd2_sdetFALSE",5.52812013604825e-05,127,128,5 +"reps19_hd2_sdetFALSE",5.52334056835546e-05,129,130,6 +"reps19_hd2_sdetFALSE",0.000219281569444876,131,132,7 +"reps19_hd2_sdetFALSE",0.000640217368054598,133,134,8 diff --git a/inst/extdata/mdl_combine_ases1_train.csv b/inst/extdata/mdl_combine_ases1_train_bs130.csv similarity index 100% rename from inst/extdata/mdl_combine_ases1_train.csv rename to inst/extdata/mdl_combine_ases1_train_bs130.csv diff --git a/inst/extdata/mdl_combine_ases2_train_bs120.csv b/inst/extdata/mdl_combine_ases2_train_bs120.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..64b35d9 --- /dev/null +++ b/inst/extdata/mdl_combine_ases2_train_bs120.csv @@ -0,0 +1,41 @@ +"Model","ASE","Time_Test_Start","Time_Test_End","Batch" +"Univar A",3.12308225764145e-05,119,120,1 +"Univar A",8.31434200888188e-05,121,122,2 +"Univar A",8.99107613814644e-05,123,124,3 +"Univar A",9.23963889730699e-05,125,126,4 +"Univar A",3.58922274584229e-05,127,128,5 +"Univar A",3.96032672843582e-05,129,130,6 +"Univar A",5.75283877703727e-05,131,132,7 +"Univar A",0.000179876397666713,133,134,8 +"Univar B",3.11894455528081e-05,119,120,1 +"Univar B",0.000195071292086915,121,122,2 +"Univar B",2.0555112379594e-05,123,124,3 +"Univar B",3.4537354499041e-06,125,126,4 +"Univar B",0.000238009765613329,127,128,5 +"Univar B",5.00922427881027e-05,129,130,6 +"Univar B",3.61710997771645e-06,131,132,7 +"Univar B",0.000133945482877433,133,134,8 +"AIC Both - R",9.53415765907678e-05,119,120,1 +"AIC Both - R",5.63432845915735e-05,121,122,2 +"AIC Both - R",0.000162816178046665,123,124,3 +"AIC Both - 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+"reps19_hd2_sdetFALSE",130,8.2296057878991,8.2296057878991,8.2296057878991 +"reps19_hd2_sdetFALSE",131,8.23126261794512,8.23126261794512,8.23126261794512 +"reps19_hd2_sdetFALSE",132,8.24411923545579,8.24411923545579,8.24411923545579 +"reps19_hd2_sdetFALSE",133,8.22004372925057,8.22004372925057,8.22004372925057 +"reps19_hd2_sdetFALSE",134,8.21707118901122,8.21707118901122,8.21707118901122 diff --git a/inst/extdata/mdl_combine_forecasts2_train.csv b/inst/extdata/mdl_combine_forecasts2_train_bs130.csv similarity index 100% rename from inst/extdata/mdl_combine_forecasts2_train.csv rename to inst/extdata/mdl_combine_forecasts2_train_bs130.csv diff --git a/man/ModelCombine.Rd b/man/ModelCombine.Rd index f93f830..6decf8f 100644 --- a/man/ModelCombine.Rd +++ b/man/ModelCombine.Rd @@ -16,12 +16,15 @@ R6 class ModelCompareMultivariate \item \href{#method-get_var_interest}{\code{ModelCombine$get_var_interest()}} \item \href{#method-get_data_var_interest}{\code{ModelCombine$get_data_var_interest()}} \item \href{#method-set_verbose}{\code{ModelCombine$set_verbose()}} +\item \href{#method-plot_simple_forecasts}{\code{ModelCombine$plot_simple_forecasts()}} \item \href{#method-plot_batch_forecasts}{\code{ModelCombine$plot_batch_forecasts()}} \item \href{#method-plot_batch_ases}{\code{ModelCombine$plot_batch_ases()}} \item \href{#method-plot_boxplot_ases}{\code{ModelCombine$plot_boxplot_ases()}} \item \href{#method-statistical_compare}{\code{ModelCombine$statistical_compare()}} \item \href{#method-get_tabular_metrics}{\code{ModelCombine$get_tabular_metrics()}} +\item \href{#method-compute_simple_forecasts}{\code{ModelCombine$compute_simple_forecasts()}} \item \href{#method-create_ensemble}{\code{ModelCombine$create_ensemble()}} +\item \href{#method-predict_ensemble}{\code{ModelCombine$predict_ensemble()}} \item \href{#method-clone}{\code{ModelCombine$clone()}} } } @@ -121,6 +124,37 @@ Adjust the verbosity level } } \if{html}{\out{
}} +\if{html}{\out{}} +\if{latex}{\out{\hypertarget{method-plot_simple_forecasts}{}}} +\subsection{Method \code{plot_simple_forecasts()}}{ +Plots the simple forecast for each model +\subsection{Usage}{ +\if{html}{\out{
}}\preformatted{ModelCombine$plot_simple_forecasts( + lastn = FALSE, + newxreg = NA, + limits = FALSE, + zoom = NA +)}\if{html}{\out{
}} +} + +\subsection{Arguments}{ +\if{html}{\out{
}} +\describe{ +\item{\code{lastn}}{If TRUE, this will plot the forecasts forthe last n.ahead values of the realization (Default: FALSE)} + +\item{\code{newxreg}}{The future exogenous variable values to be used for prediction. +Applicable to models that require the values of the new exogenous variables to be provided for future forecasts, e.g. nnfor::mlp()} + +\item{\code{limits}}{If TRUE, this will also plot the lower and upper limits of the forecasts (Default: FALSE)} + +\item{\code{zoom}}{A number indicating how much to zoom into the plot. +For example zoom = 50 will only plot the last 50 points of the realization +Useful for cases where realizations that are long and n.ahead is small.} +} +\if{html}{\out{
}} +} +} +\if{html}{\out{
}} \if{html}{\out{}} \if{latex}{\out{\hypertarget{method-plot_batch_forecasts}{}}} \subsection{Method \code{plot_batch_forecasts()}}{ @@ -202,6 +236,30 @@ forecasts, and the lower and upper limits asscoiated with the forecasts} } } \if{html}{\out{
}} +\if{html}{\out{}} +\if{latex}{\out{\hypertarget{method-compute_simple_forecasts}{}}} +\subsection{Method \code{compute_simple_forecasts()}}{ +Computes the simple forecasts using all the models +\subsection{Usage}{ +\if{html}{\out{
}}\preformatted{ModelCombine$compute_simple_forecasts(lastn = FALSE, newxreg = NA)}\if{html}{\out{
}} +} + +\subsection{Arguments}{ +\if{html}{\out{
}} +\describe{ +\item{\code{lastn}}{If TRUE, this will get the forecasts for the last n.ahead values of the realization (Default: FALSE). +If there is a ModelCompareNNforCaret object passed to this object, then lastn must be TRUE.} + +\item{\code{newxreg}}{The future exogenous variable values to be used for prediction. +Applicable to models that require the values of the new exogenous variables to be provided for future forecasts, e.g. nnfor::mlp()} +} +\if{html}{\out{
}} +} +\subsection{Returns}{ +The forecasted values +} +} +\if{html}{\out{
}} \if{html}{\out{}} \if{latex}{\out{\hypertarget{method-create_ensemble}{}}} \subsection{Method \code{create_ensemble()}}{ @@ -210,6 +268,32 @@ Creates an ensemble model based on all the models provided \if{html}{\out{
}}\preformatted{ModelCombine$create_ensemble()}\if{html}{\out{
}} } +} +\if{html}{\out{
}} +\if{html}{\out{}} +\if{latex}{\out{\hypertarget{method-predict_ensemble}{}}} +\subsection{Method \code{predict_ensemble()}}{ +Makes a prediction based on the ensemble model +\subsection{Usage}{ +\if{html}{\out{
}}\preformatted{ModelCombine$predict_ensemble(naive = FALSE, comb = "median", newxreg = NA)}\if{html}{\out{
}} +} + +\subsection{Arguments}{ +\if{html}{\out{
}} +\describe{ +\item{\code{naive}}{If TRUE, the ensemble will be a simple mean of the prediction of all the models +If FALSE, the ensemble will use a glm model created from the batch predictions of all the models} + +\item{\code{comb}}{If 'naive' = TRUE, how to combine the predictions. Allowed values are 'mean' or 'median'} + +\item{\code{newxreg}}{The future exogenous variable values to be used for prediction. +Applicable to models that require the values of the new exogenous variables to be provided for future forecasts, e.g. nnfor::mlp()} +} +\if{html}{\out{
}} +} +\subsection{Returns}{ +The predictions from each model along with the ensemble prediction +} } \if{html}{\out{
}} \if{html}{\out{}} diff --git a/man/ModelCompareBase.Rd b/man/ModelCompareBase.Rd index 363a3c6..ceba02b 100644 --- a/man/ModelCompareBase.Rd +++ b/man/ModelCompareBase.Rd @@ -261,7 +261,8 @@ Plots the simple forecast for each model lastn = FALSE, newxreg = NA, limits = FALSE, - zoom = NA + zoom = NA, + plot = TRUE )}\if{html}{\out{}} } @@ -277,6 +278,8 @@ Plots the simple forecast for each model \item{\code{zoom}}{A number indicating how much to zoom into the plot. For example zoom = 50 will only plot the last 50 points of the realization Useful for cases where realizations that are long and n.ahead is small.} + +\item{\code{plot}}{If FALSE the plots are not plotted; useful when you want to just return the data (Default = TRUE)} } \if{html}{\out{}} } diff --git a/tests/testthat/test-BuildNNforCaret.R b/tests/testthat/test-BuildNNforCaret.R index 015fb12..bad4896 100644 --- a/tests/testthat/test-BuildNNforCaret.R +++ b/tests/testthat/test-BuildNNforCaret.R @@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ test_that("Random Serial", { # http://r-pkgs.had.co.nz/tests.html # TODO: Disable test before submitting to CRAN - # testthat::skip_on_cran() + testthat::skip_on_cran() # Load Data data = USeconomic diff --git a/tests/testthat/test-ModelCombine.R b/tests/testthat/test-ModelCombine.R index 9491137..cd5b042 100644 --- a/tests/testthat/test-ModelCombine.R +++ b/tests/testthat/test-ModelCombine.R @@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ test_that("Combine Models", { data = USeconomic var_interest = 'logGNP' - batch_size = 130 + batch_size = 120 n.ahead = 2 data_train = data %>% dplyr::slice(1:(dplyr::n()-n.ahead)) @@ -69,9 +69,11 @@ test_that("Combine Models", { # # model$summarize_hyperparam_results() # caret_model = model$get_final_models(subset = 'a') - # # saveRDS(caret_model, "caret_model_batch_ase_train.rds") - file = system.file("extdata", "caret_model_batch_ase_train.rds", package = "tswgewrapped", mustWork = TRUE) + file_type = "train" + file_name = paste0("caret_model_", file_type, "_bs", batch_size, ".rds") + # saveRDS(caret_model, file_name) + file = system.file("extdata", file_name, package = "tswgewrapped", mustWork = TRUE) caret_model = readRDS(file) # Initialize the ModelCompareMultivariateVAR object @@ -91,30 +93,39 @@ test_that("Combine Models", { ## Tabular Metrics ASEs ases1 = mdl_combine$get_tabular_metrics() - # write.csv(ases1, file = "mdl_combine_ases1_train.csv", row.names = FALSE) - ases1_file = system.file("extdata", "mdl_combine_ases1_train.csv", package = "tswgewrapped", mustWork = TRUE) + + file_type = "ases1" + file_name = paste0("mdl_combine_", file_type, "_train_bs", batch_size, ".csv") + # write.csv(ases1, file = file_name, row.names = FALSE) + ases1_file = system.file("extdata", file_name, package = "tswgewrapped", mustWork = TRUE) ases1_target = read.csv(ases1_file, header = TRUE, stringsAsFactors = FALSE) good1 = all.equal(as.data.frame(ases1), ases1_target %>% dplyr::mutate_if(is.numeric, as.double)) testthat::expect_equal(good1, TRUE) ases2 = mdl_combine$get_tabular_metrics(only_sliding = TRUE) - # write.csv(ases2, file = "mdl_combine_ases2_train.csv", row.names = FALSE) - ases2_file = system.file("extdata", "mdl_combine_ases2_train.csv", package = "tswgewrapped", mustWork = TRUE) + file_type = "ases2" + file_name = paste0("mdl_combine_", file_type, "_train_bs", batch_size, ".csv") + # write.csv(ases2, file = file_name, row.names = FALSE) + ases2_file = system.file("extdata", file_name, package = "tswgewrapped", mustWork = TRUE) ases2_target = read.csv(ases2_file, header = TRUE, stringsAsFactors = FALSE) good2 = all.equal(as.data.frame(ases2), ases2_target %>% dplyr::mutate_if(is.numeric, as.double)) testthat::expect_equal(good2, TRUE) ## Tabular Metrics Forecasts forecasts1 = mdl_combine$get_tabular_metrics(ases = FALSE) - # write.csv(forecasts1, file = "mdl_combine_forecasts1_train.csv", row.names = FALSE) - forecasts1_file = system.file("extdata", "mdl_combine_forecasts1_train.csv", package = "tswgewrapped", mustWork = TRUE) + file_type = "forecasts1" + file_name = paste0("mdl_combine_", file_type, "_train_bs", batch_size, ".csv") + # write.csv(forecasts1, file = file_name, row.names = FALSE) + forecasts1_file = system.file("extdata", file_name, package = "tswgewrapped", mustWork = TRUE) forecasts1_target = read.csv(forecasts1_file, header = TRUE, stringsAsFactors = FALSE) good3 = all.equal(as.data.frame(forecasts1), forecasts1_target %>% dplyr::mutate_if(is.numeric, as.double)) testthat::expect_equal(good3, TRUE) forecasts2 = mdl_combine$get_tabular_metrics(ases = FALSE, only_sliding = TRUE) - # write.csv(forecasts2, file = "mdl_combine_forecasts2_train.csv", row.names = FALSE) - forecasts2_file = system.file("extdata", "mdl_combine_forecasts2_train.csv", package = "tswgewrapped", mustWork = TRUE) + file_type = "forecasts2" + file_name = paste0("mdl_combine_", file_type, "_train_bs", batch_size, ".csv") + # write.csv(forecasts2, file = file_name, row.names = FALSE) + forecasts2_file = system.file("extdata", file_name, package = "tswgewrapped", mustWork = TRUE) forecasts2_target = read.csv(forecasts2_file, header = TRUE, stringsAsFactors = FALSE) good4 = all.equal(as.data.frame(forecasts2), forecasts2_target %>% dplyr::mutate_if(is.numeric, as.double)) testthat::expect_equal(good4, TRUE) @@ -128,12 +139,48 @@ test_that("Combine Models", { ## Statistical Comparison comparison = mdl_combine$statistical_compare() - testthat::expect_equal(round(summary(comparison)[[1]][['Pr(>F)']][1],6), 0.372514) + testthat::expect_equal(round(summary(comparison)[[1]][['Pr(>F)']][1],6), 0.441591) ## Forecast Compariaon - data_test[var_interest] - mdl_compare_uni$plot_simple_forecasts(lastn = FALSE) - mdl_compare_var$plot_simple_forecasts(lastn = FALSE) - mdl_compare_mlp$plot_simple_forecasts(lastn = FALSE, newxreg = data_test %>% dplyr::select(-!!var_interest), zoom = 5) + test_var_interest = data_test[var_interest] + newxreg = data_test %>% dplyr::select(-!!var_interest) + # # Individual + # p = mdl_compare_uni$plot_simple_forecasts(lastn = FALSE) + # p = mdl_compare_var$plot_simple_forecasts(lastn = FALSE) + # p = mdl_compare_mlp$plot_simple_forecasts(lastn = FALSE, newxreg = data_test %>% dplyr::select(-!!var_interest), zoom = 5) + # Combined + p = mdl_combine$plot_simple_forecasts(lastn = FALSE, newxreg = data_test %>% dplyr::select(-!!var_interest), zoom = 5) + + mdl_combine$create_ensemble() + print("Expected Values") + print(test_var_interest) + + ensemble1 = mdl_combine$predict_ensemble(naive = TRUE, newxreg = newxreg) + file_type = "naive_median" + file_name = paste0("ensemble_", file_type, "_train_bs", batch_size, ".csv") + # write.csv(ensemble1, file = file_name, row.names = FALSE) + ensemble1_file = system.file("extdata", file_name, package = "tswgewrapped", mustWork = TRUE) + ensemble1_target = read.csv(ensemble1_file, header = TRUE, stringsAsFactors = FALSE, check.names = FALSE) + good5 = all.equal(as.data.frame(ensemble1), ensemble1_target %>% dplyr::mutate_if(is.numeric, as.double)) + testthat::expect_equal(good5, TRUE) + + ensemble2 = mdl_combine$predict_ensemble(naive = TRUE, comb = 'mean', newxreg = newxreg) + file_type = "naive_mean" + file_name = paste0("ensemble_", file_type, "_train_bs", batch_size, ".csv") + # write.csv(ensemble2, file = file_name, row.names = FALSE) + ensemble2_file = system.file("extdata", file_name, package = "tswgewrapped", mustWork = TRUE) + ensemble2_target = read.csv(ensemble2_file, header = TRUE, stringsAsFactors = FALSE, check.names = FALSE) + good6 = all.equal(as.data.frame(ensemble2), ensemble2_target %>% dplyr::mutate_if(is.numeric, as.double)) + testthat::expect_equal(good6, TRUE) + + ensemble3 = mdl_combine$predict_ensemble(naive = FALSE, newxreg = newxreg) + file_type = "glm" + file_name = paste0("ensemble_", file_type, "_train_bs", batch_size, ".csv") + # write.csv(ensemble3, file = file_name, row.names = FALSE) + ensemble3_file = system.file("extdata", file_name, package = "tswgewrapped", mustWork = TRUE) + ensemble3_target = read.csv(ensemble3_file, header = TRUE, stringsAsFactors = FALSE, check.names = FALSE) + good7 = all.equal(as.data.frame(ensemble3) %>% dplyr::mutate_if(is.numeric, as.double), ensemble3_target %>% dplyr::mutate_if(is.numeric, as.double)) + testthat::expect_equal(good7, TRUE) + }) diff --git a/vignettes/ModelCombine.Rmd b/vignettes/ModelCombine.Rmd index 16e0c70..a9c491e 100644 --- a/vignettes/ModelCombine.Rmd +++ b/vignettes/ModelCombine.Rmd @@ -17,11 +17,11 @@ knitr::opts_chunk$set( # Setup Libraries ```{r setup} library(tswgewrapped) +library(dplyr) ``` # Load Data ```{r} -# Load Data file = system.file("extdata", "USeconomic.csv", package = "tswgewrapped", mustWork = TRUE) USeconomic = read.csv(file, header = TRUE, stringsAsFactors = FALSE, check.names = FALSE) names(USeconomic) = gsub("[(|)]", "", colnames(USeconomic)) @@ -31,10 +31,16 @@ data = USeconomic # Model Global Settings ```{r} var_interest = 'logGNP' -batch_size = 132 +batch_size = 120 n.ahead = 2 ``` +# Train / Test Split +```{r} +data_train = data %>% dplyr::slice(1:(dplyr::n()-n.ahead)) +data_test = data %>% dplyr::slice((dplyr::n()-n.ahead), dplyr::n()) +``` + # 1.0 Build and Compare Models ## 1.1 Univariate @@ -43,8 +49,10 @@ models = list("Univar A" = list(phi = 0.9, d = 1, s = 0, sliding_ase = TRUE), "Univar B" = list(phi = 0.9, d = 1, s = 4, sliding_ase = TRUE), "Univar C" = list(phi = 0.9, d = 1, s = 4, sliding_ase = FALSE) ) +``` -mdl_compare_uni = ModelCompareUnivariate$new(data = data, var_interest = var_interest, mdl_list = models, +```{r} +mdl_compare_uni = ModelCompareUnivariate$new(data = data_train, var_interest = var_interest, mdl_list = models, n.ahead = n.ahead, batch_size = batch_size) ``` @@ -52,27 +60,33 @@ mdl_compare_uni = ModelCompareUnivariate$new(data = data, var_interest = var_int ## 1.2 VAR ```{r} lag.max = 10 - + models = list("AIC None" = list(select = "aic", trend_type = "none", lag.max = lag.max), "AIC Trend" = list(select = "aic", trend_type = "trend", lag.max = lag.max), "AIC Both" = list(select = "aic", trend_type = "both", lag.max = lag.max)) +``` - -mdl_build_var = ModelBuildMultivariateVAR$new(data = data, var_interest = var_interest, +```{r} +mdl_build_var = ModelBuildMultivariateVAR$new(data = data_train, var_interest = var_interest, mdl_list = models, verbose = 0) +``` +```{r} mdl_build_var$build_recommended_models() models = mdl_build_var$get_final_models(subset = 'r') +``` +```{r} # Setup Models to be compared with sliding ASE = TRUE for (name in names(models)){ models[[name]][['sliding_ase']] = TRUE } +``` +```{r} # Initialize the ModelCompareMultivariateVAR object -mdl_compare_var = ModelCompareMultivariateVAR$new(data = data, var_interest = var_interest, +mdl_compare_var = ModelCompareMultivariateVAR$new(data = data_train, var_interest = var_interest, mdl_list = models, n.ahead = n.ahead, batch_size = batch_size, verbose = 0) - ``` ## 1.3 NNFOR::mlp() Caret #### @@ -81,36 +95,45 @@ mdl_compare_var = ModelCompareMultivariateVAR$new(data = data, var_interest = va ```{r} # library(caret) -# + # # Random Parallel -# model = ModelBuildNNforCaret$new(data = data, var_interest = "logGNP", m = 2, +# model = ModelBuildNNforCaret$new(data = data_train, var_interest = var_interest, m = 4, # search = 'random', # grid = NA, tuneLength = 2, -# batch_size = 132, h = 2, +# batch_size = batch_size, h = n.ahead, # parallel = TRUE, # seed = 1, # verbose = 1) # # model$summarize_hyperparam_results() # caret_model = model$get_final_models(subset = 'a') +``` -file = system.file("extdata", "caret_model_batch_ase.rds", package = "tswgewrapped", mustWork = TRUE) +```{r} +file_type = "train" +file_name = paste0("caret_model_", file_type, "_bs", batch_size, ".rds") +file = system.file("extdata", file_name, package = "tswgewrapped", mustWork = TRUE) caret_model = readRDS(file) +``` + +```{r} # Initialize the ModelCompareMultivariateVAR object -mdl_compare_mlp = ModelCompareNNforCaret$new(data = data, var_interest = var_interest, +mdl_compare_mlp = ModelCompareNNforCaret$new(data = data_train, var_interest = var_interest, mdl_list = caret_model, verbose = 1) + ``` # 2.0 Combine all models ```{r} -mdl_combine = ModelCombine$new(data = data, var_interest = "logGNP", - uni_models = mdl_compare_uni, var_models = mdl_compare_var, mlp_models = mdl_compare_mlp, - verbose = 1) +mdl_combine = ModelCombine$new(data = data_train, var_interest = var_interest, + uni_models = mdl_compare_uni, var_models = mdl_compare_var, mlp_models = mdl_compare_mlp, + verbose = 1) ``` + ## Statistical Comparison ```{r} mdl_combine$plot_boxplot_ases() @@ -131,6 +154,8 @@ mdl_combine$plot_batch_ases() ``` ## Forecasts + +### Batch Forecasts ```{r} forecasts = mdl_combine$get_tabular_metrics(ases = FALSE) forecasts @@ -140,3 +165,48 @@ forecasts mdl_combine$plot_batch_forecasts() ``` +### Simple Forecasts + +```{r} +newxreg = data_test %>% dplyr::select(-!!var_interest) +mdl_combine$compute_simple_forecasts(lastn = FALSE, newxreg = newxreg) +``` + +```{r} +p = mdl_combine$plot_simple_forecasts(lastn = FALSE, newxreg = newxreg, zoom = 20) +``` + +# Ensemble + +## Create the ensemble model(s) +```{r} +mdl_combine$create_ensemble() +``` + +## Forecasts with Ensemble Models + +```{r} +test_var_interest = data_test[var_interest] +print("Expected Values") +print(test_var_interest) +``` + +### Naive with combine = 'median' +```{r} +ensemble1 = mdl_combine$predict_ensemble(naive = TRUE, comb = 'median', newxreg = newxreg) +ensemble1 +``` + +### Naive with combine = 'meean' +```{r} +ensemble2 = mdl_combine$predict_ensemble(naive = TRUE, comb = 'mean', newxreg = newxreg) +ensemble2 +``` + +### glm ensemble +```{r} +ensemble3 = mdl_combine$predict_ensemble(naive = FALSE, newxreg = newxreg) +ensemble3 +``` + +