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    meta(name="description" content="We measure the gains from phasing out coal as the average social cost of carbon times the quantity of avoided emissions. By comparing the present value of benefits from avoided emissions against the present value of costs of ending coal and replacing it with renewables, our conservative baseline estimate is that the world can realize a net gain of $85 trillion.")
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    title The Great Carbon Arbitrage
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    include includes/header.pug

    script(src="js/carbon_arbitrage.js" type="module")

    include includes/mixins.pug

    div(style="width: 80%; margin:0 auto").p-5
      p(style="text-align: center")
        em
          |We measure the gains from phasing out coal as the average social
          |cost of carbon times the quantity of avoided emissions. By comparing
          |the present value of benefits from avoided emissions against the
          |present value of costs of ending coal and replacing it with renewables,
          |our conservative baseline estimate is that the world can realize a net
          |gain of $85 trillion. This global net social benefit can be attained
          |through an international agreement to phase out coal. We also explore
          |how this net benefit is distributed across countries and find that most
          |countries would benefit from a global coal phase-out even without any
          |compensatory cross-country transfers. Finally, we estimate the size of
          |public funds that must be committed under a blended finance arrangement
          |to finance the cost of replacing coal with renewables.

      p
        |The main result of the paper can be explored in this page.
        |Additionally, you can explore the climate financing needed to phase
        |out coal by 
        a(href="climate_financing_map.html") country
        | 
        |or 
        a(href="climate_financing.html") region
        |, or as an 
        a(href="climate_financing_yearly.html") annual timeseries
        |. Feel free to pick your own parameters to generate the results (the
        |parameters are set to the baseline settings of the paper by default).

      p
        | To get an overview of how the numbers are calculated, you may read the brief 
        a(href="https://github.com/ox-inet-resilience/carbon_arbitrage_code/blob/main/public/back_of_the_envelope.py") back-of-the envelope calculation
        | 
        |of the cost and benefit using only public data from IEA, NGFS, and Our World in Data.

    div.d-flex.flex-column.flex-lg-row.justify-content-center
      // Input
      div(class="d-flex flex-wrap py-3 mb-4").mx-auto.me-lg-3.px-3
        .flex-column
          +sccSlider

          +timeHorizon

          include includes/common_user_inputs.pug

          +discountRate
          +energyStorage

      // Output
      div(style="width:700px").mx-auto.ms-lg-3.px-3
        h4 Result
        table.table.table-hover
          tr
            td Present value of benefits of phasing out coal (in trillion dollars)
            td
              output#pv-benefits 114.04
          tr
            td
              |Present value of costs of phasing out coal (in trillion dollars)
              +moreInfo("Consists of the opportunity costs of coal and investment costs in replacement (renewable) energy.")
            td
              output#pv-costs 29.03
          tr
            td
              |      
              |Opportunity costs (in trillion dollars)
              +moreInfo("Present value of missed free cash flows of coal companies resulting from phasing out coal.")
            td
              output#opportunity-costs 0.05
          tr
            td
              |      
              |Investment costs (in trillion dollars)
            td
              output#investment-costs 28.98
          tr.table-success
            td
              |Carbon arbitrage (in trillion dollars)
              +moreInfo("Difference between present value of benefits and costs of phasing out coal.")
            td
              output#carbon-arbitrage 85.01
          tr.table-success
            td
              |Carbon arbitrage relative to world GDP
              +moreInfo("Carbon arbitrage relative to GDP every year from t+2 until time T, where t+2=2024 and T=time horizon of carbon arbitrage.")
            td
              output#carbon-arbitrage-relative-gdp 1.3 %
          tr.table-success
            td Carbon arbitrage (in dollars) per tonne of coal production
            td
              output#carbon-arbitrage-per-tcoal 136
          tr.table-success
            td
              |Carbon arbitrage (in dollars) per tCO
              sub 2
            td
              output#carbon-arbitrage-per-tco2 60
          tr
            td Total coal production prevented (Giga Tonnes)
            td
              output#coal-production-prevented 623.62
          tr
            td
              |Total emissions prevented (GtCO
              sub 2
              |)
            td
              output#emissions-prevented 1425.55
          tr
            td
              |Further temperature increase — on top of 1.1 ℃
              br
              |already observed — prevented
            td
              output#temperature-increase 2.14

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      import {calculate} from "./js/carbon_arbitrage.js"
      window.calculate = calculate
      calculate()