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I hadn't thought of testing my model on a case where two teams are equally strong. Seems like a great test for any model. When I predict a dummy game where the teams are identical, I get 0.51 when it should be 0.5, even after removing the intercept. Not good. I suspect this is due to failing to permute which team is the "lower" team. Perhaps teams with lower Kaggle numbers have historically done slightly better over the years of data I trained on and that leaked into my model.
The text was updated successfully, but these errors were encountered:
From my comment here: https://www.kaggle.com/c/mens-machine-learning-competition-2018/discussion/51230
The text was updated successfully, but these errors were encountered: