The uncertainty of the ensemble mean should decrease with the square root of the number of independent time steps. There are large inter-model differences. This remains true for other variables: NHF regressed on SST, PR, Sea Surface Height, SST regressed on SSH, SST, Taux, Taux regressed on SST, Tauy
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project: CMIP6
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experiment: historical
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epoch lengths: 30, 45, 60, 75, 90, 105, 120, 135, 150-year
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regions: Niño4 (5N-5S, 160E-150W), Niño3.4 (5N-5S, 120-170W), Niño3 (5N-5S, 90-150W)
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variable: Net Surface Heat flux (seasonal cycle removed for variance and skewness)
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statistics: mean, variance, skewness
Computed using equation (9) from Planton et al. (preprint)
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