Hsieh, T. C. and Anne Chao
Institute of Statistics, National Tsing Hua University, Hsin-Chu, Taiwan 30043
`iNextPD` (**iN**terpolation and **ext**rapolation for **P**hylogenetic **D**iversity) is an R package provides the rarefaction and extrapolation framework to making fair comparison of abundance-sensitive phylogenetic diversity among multiple assemblages (Hsieh and Chao, Systematic Biology, 2016). In this document, we provide a quick introduction demonstrating how to run `iNextPD`. Detailed information about `iNextPD` functions is provided in the iNextPD Manual, also available in [CRAN](https://cran.r-project.org/package=iNextPD). See Chao et al. (2015) and Hsieh and Chao (2016) for methodologies. An online version of `PhDOnline` () is also available for users without an R background. A neutral theory of species diversity is included in Chao et al. (2014); and a brief description of methods and R package (`iNEXT`) are included in an application paper by Hsieh, Ma & Chao (2016).
iNextPD
is an extension for iNEXT
, which extending trdional rarefaction and extrapoltion framework for species diversity to abundance-sensitive phylogenetic diversity. iNextPD
focuses on three measures of Hill numbers of order q: Faith's PD (q = 0
), a simple transformation of phylogenetic entropy (q = 1
) and and a simple transformation of Rao's quadratic entropy (q = 2
). For each diversity measure, iNextPD
uses the observed sample of abundance or incidence data (called the “reference sample”) to compute diversity estimates and the associated 95% confidence intervals for the following two types of rarefaction and extrapolation (R/E):
- Sample‐size‐based R/E sampling curves:
iNextPD
computes diversity estimates for rarefied and extrapolated samples up to an appropriate size. This type of sampling curve plots the diversity estimates with respect to sample size (tyep=1
). - Coverage‐based R/E sampling curves:
iNextPD
computes diversity estimates for rarefied and extrapolated samples with sample completeness (as measured by sample coverage) up to an appropriate coverage. This type of sampling curve plots the diversity estimates with respect to sample coverage (type=3
).
iNextPD
also plots the above two types of sampling curves and a sample completeness curve. The sample completeness curve provides a bridge between these two types of curves (type=2
).
- Required: R
- Suggested: RStudio IDE
The iNextPD
package is available on CRAN and can be downloaded with a standard R installation procedure using the following commands. For a first‐time installation, the additional visualization extension packages (ade4
, ggplot2
, iNEXT
, Rcpp
) must be loaded.
## install iNEXT package from CRAN
install.packages("iNextPD")
## install the latest version from github
install.packages('devtools')
library(devtools)
install_github('JohnsonHsieh/iNextPD')
## import packages
library(iNextPD)
library(ggplot2)
library(ade4)
Remark: In order to install devtools
package, you should update R to the latest version. Also, to get install_github
to work, you should install the httr
package.
We first describe the main function iNextPD()
with default arguments:
iNextPD(x, labels, phy, q=0, datatype="abundance", size=NULL, endpoint=NULL, knots=40, se=FALSE, conf=0.95, nboot=50)
The arguments of this function are briefly described below, and will be explained in more details by illustrative examples in later text. This main function computes diversity estimates of order q = 0, 1, 2, the sample coverage estimates and related statistics for K (if knots=K
) evenly‐spaced knots (sample sizes) between size 1 and the endpoint
, where the endpoint is described below. Each knot represents a particular sample size for which diversity estimates will be calculated. By default, endpoint = double the reference sample size (total sample size for abundance data; total sampling units for incidence data). For example, if endpoint = 10
, knot = 4
, diversity estimates will be computed for a sequence of samples with sizes (1, 4, 7, 10).
Argument | Description |
---|---|
x
|
a matrix , data.frame , lists of species abundances or incidence data.
|
labels
|
species names for object x .
|
phy
|
a phylog objcet for input phylo-tree.
|
q
|
a number or vector specifying the diversity order(s) of Hill numbers. |
datatype
|
data type of input data: individual-based abundance data (`datatype = "abundance"`), or species by sampling-units incidence matrix (`datatype = "incidence_raw"`). |
size
|
an integer vector of sample sizes for which diversity estimates will be computed. If NULL , then diversity estimates will be calculated for those sample sizes determined by the specified/default `endpoint` and `knots`.
|
endpoint
|
an integer specifying the sample size that is the endpoint for R/E calculation; If NULL , then `endpoint=`double the reference sample size.
|
knots
|
an integer specifying the number of equally-spaced `knots` (say K, default is 40) between size 1 and the `endpoint`; each `knot` represents a particular sample size for which diversity estimate will be calculated. If the `endpoint` is smaller than the reference sample size, then `iNextPD()` computes only the rarefaction esimates for approximately K evenly spaced knots. If the `endpoint` is larger than the reference sample size, then `iNextPD()` computes rarefaction estimates for approximately K/2 evenly spaced `knots` between sample size 1 and the reference sample size, and computes extrapolation estimates for approximately K/2 evenly spaced `knots` between the reference sample size and the `endpoint`. |
se
|
a logical variable to calculate the bootstrap standard error and conf confidence interval.
|
conf
|
a positive number < 1 specifying the level of confidence interval, default is 0.95. |
nboot
|
an integer specifying the number of bootstrap replications. |
Three types of data are supported:
-
Individual‐based abundance data (
datatype="abundance"
): Input data for each assemblage/site include samples species abundances in an empirical sample of n individuals (“reference sample”). When there are N assemblages, input data consist of an S by N abundance matrix, or N lists of species abundances. -
Sampling‐unit‐based incidence data: Incidence‐raw data (
datatype="incidence_raw"
): for each assemblage, input data for a reference sample consist of a species‐by‐sampling‐unit matrix; when there are N assemblages, input data consist of N lists of matrices, and each matrix is a species‐by‐sampling‐unit matrix.
Bird phylogeny and survey dataset is included in iNextPD package. This data set describes the phylogeny ($tre
) of 41 birds as reported by Jetz et al. (2012). It also gives the two sites of species abundance ($abun
) and incidence ($inci
) data to these 41 species in November 2012 at Barrington Tops National Park, Australia. For this data, the following commands display basic data visualization:
data(bird)
str(bird)
List of 3
$ tre : chr "(((((Alisterus_scapularis:31.96595541,Platycercus_elegans:31.96595545):13.04819101,(Cacatua_galerita:32.14669035,Calyptorhynchu"| __truncated__
$ abun:'data.frame': 41 obs. of 2 variables:
..$ North.site: int [1:41] 0 0 41 0 3 1 5 4 4 11 ...
..$ South.site: int [1:41] 3 18 31 2 1 2 5 1 6 32 ...
$ inci:List of 2
..$ North.site: num [1:41, 1:12] 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 ...
.. ..- attr(*, "dimnames")=List of 2
.. .. ..$ : chr [1:41] "Acanthiza_lineata" "Acanthiza_nana" "Acanthiza_pusilla" "Acanthorhynchus_tenuirostris" ...
.. .. ..$ : chr [1:12] "F1O" "F2A" "F3A" "F3O" ...
..$ South.site: num [1:41, 1:17] 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 ...
.. ..- attr(*, "dimnames")=List of 2
.. .. ..$ : chr [1:41] "Acanthiza_lineata" "Acanthiza_nana" "Acanthiza_pusilla" "Acanthorhynchus_tenuirostris" ...
.. .. ..$ : chr [1:17] "G.beech" "G1A" "G1C" "G2A" ...
bird.lab <- rownames(bird$abun)
bird.phy <- ade4::newick2phylog(bird$tre)
# plot(bird.phy)
table.phylog(bird$abun, bird.phy, csize=4, f.phylog=0.7)
For this data, the following commands display basic data information and run the iNextPD()
function for q = 0
.
iNextPD(x=bird$abun, labels=bird.lab, phy=bird.phy,
q=0, datatype="abundance")
The iNextPD()
function returns the "iNextPD"
object including three data frames: $DataInfo
for summarizing data information; $iNextPDEst
for showing phylogenetic diversity estimates along with related statistics for a series of rarefied and extrapolated samples; and $AsyPDEst
for showing asymptotic phylogenetic diversity estimates along with related statistics. $DataInfo
, as shown below, returns basic data information including the reference sample size (n
), observed species richness (S.obs
), a sample coverage estimate (SC
), and the first ten frequency counts (f1‐f10
). This part of output can also be computed by the function iNEXT::DataInfo()
$DataInfo: basic data information
site n S.obs SC f1 f2 f3 f4 f5 f6 f7 f8 f9 f10
1 North.site 202 27 0.9705 6 4 2 2 2 0 1 1 1 0
2 South.site 307 38 0.9838 5 6 3 2 3 4 2 0 2 2
For incidence data, the list $DataInfo
includes the reference sample size (T
), observed species richness (S.obs
), total number of incidences (U
), a sample coverage estimate (SC
), and the first ten incidence frequency counts (Q1‐Q10
).
In the `North.site`, by default, 40 equally spaced knots (samples sizes) between 1 and 404 (= 2 x 202, double reference sample size) are selected. Diversity estimates and related statistics are computed for these 40 `knots` (corresponding to sample sizes m = 1, 12, 23, ... 202, ..., 404), which locates the reference sample at the mid‐point of the selected knots. By default we only show five estimates on the screen, user should call `iNextPD.object$iNextPDEst` to show complete output. If the argument `se=TRUE`, then the bootstrap method is applied to obtain the `conf` (by default `conf=0.95`) confidence intervals for each diversity and sample coverage estimates.
For the sample size corresponding to each knot, the list $iNextPDEst
(as shown below for the North.site
) includes the sample size (m
, i.e., each of the 40 knots), the method (interpolated
, observed
, or extrapolated
, depending on whether the size m
is less than, equal to, or greater than the reference sample size), the diversity order, the diversity estimate of order q (qPD
), the 95% lower and upper confidence limits of diversity (qD.95.LCL
, qD.95.UCL
), and the sample coverage estimate (SC
) along with the 95% lower and upper confidence limits of sample coverage (SC.95.LCL
, SC.95.UCL
). These sample coverage estimates with conf
% confidence intervals are used for plotting the sample completeness curve and coverage-based R/E curves.
$iNextPDEst: phylogenetic diversity estimates with rarefied and extrapolated samples.
$North.site
m method order qPD qPD.95.LCL qPD.95.UCL SC SC.95.LCL SC.95.UCL
1 1 interpolated 0 82.858 75.467 90.248 0.080 0.059 0.100
10 101 interpolated 0 1043.756 961.640 1125.873 0.935 0.915 0.954
20 202 observed 0 1222.098 1091.198 1352.998 0.970 0.952 0.989
30 298 extrapolated 0 1299.178 1125.847 1472.508 0.984 0.967 1.000
40 404 extrapolated 0 1337.896 1122.961 1552.832 0.992 0.978 1.000
NOTE1: Only show five estimates, call iNextPD.object$iNextPDEst to show complete output.
$AsyPDEst
lists the observed diversity, asymptotic estimates, estimated bootstrap s.e. and 95% confidence intervals for Hill numbers with q = 0, 1, and 2. See Hsieh and Chao (2016) for asymptotic estimators. The output for the bird data is shown below. All row and column variables are self‐explanatory.
$AsyPDEst: asymptotic phylogenetic diversity estimates along with related statistics.
Observed Estimator Est_s.e. 95% Lower 95% Upper
North.site q = 0 1222.098 1367.729 139.957 1222.098 1642.039
q = 1 437.248 456.014 23.520 437.248 502.113
q = 2 212.398 214.063 10.678 212.398 234.992
South.site q = 0 1416.719 1561.469 87.287 1416.719 1732.548
q = 1 455.438 469.981 20.677 455.438 510.508
q = 2 205.894 206.898 8.704 205.894 223.958
To show the completed branch abundance/incience and branch length (Ui, Li), i = 1, 2, ..., B, user could call iNextPD.object$ExpandData
.
In practice, the user may specify an integer sample size for the argument endpoint
to designate the maximum sample size of R/E calculation. For Faith's PD, the extrapolation method is reliable up to the double reference sample size; beyond that, the prediction bias may be large. However, for measures of q = 1 and 2, the extrapolation can usually be safely extended to the asymptote if data are not sparse; thus there is no limit for the value of endpoint
for these two measures.
The user may also specify the number of knots
in the range of sample size between 1 and the endpoint. If you choose a large number of knots, then it may take a long time to obtain the output due to the time‐consuming bootstrap method. Alternatively, the user may specify a series of sample sizes for R/E computation, as in the following example:
# set a series of sample sizes (m) for R/E computation
m <- c(1, 5, 20, 50, 100, 200, 400)
iNextPD(x=bird$abun, labels=bird.lab, phy=bird.phy,
q=0, datatype="abundance", size=m)
Further, iNextPD
can simultaneously run R/E computation for Hill numbers with q = 0, 1, and 2 by specifying a vector for the argument q
as follows:
out <- iNextPD(x=bird$abun, labels=bird.lab, phy=bird.phy,
q=c(0,1,2), datatype="abundance", size=m)
We also supply the function
estimatePD(x, labels, phy, datatype="abundance", base="size",
level=NULL, conf=0.95, digits=4)
to compute diversity estimates with q = 0, 1, 2 for any particular level of sample size (base="size"
) or any specified level of sample coverage (base="coverage"
) for either abundance data (datatype="abundance"
) or incidence data ("incidence_raw"
). If level=NULL
, this function computes the diversity estimates for the minimum sample size/coverage among all sites.
For example, the following command returns the species diversity with a specified level of sample coverage of 97.5% for the bird abundance-based data. For some sites, this coverage value corresponds to the rarefaction part whereas the others correspond to extrapolation, as indicated in the method of the output.
estimatePD(bird$abun, bird.lab, bird.phy, "abundance",
base="coverage", level=0.975, conf=0.95)
site m method order SC qPD qPD.95.LCL qPD.95.UCL
1 North.site 227.0711 extrapolated 0 0.975 1248.1118 1136.8742 1359.3495
3 North.site 227.0711 extrapolated 1 0.975 439.4657 383.1780 495.7535
5 North.site 227.0711 extrapolated 2 0.975 212.5806 182.0907 243.0705
8 South.site 247.8890 interpolated 0 0.975 1367.1348 1261.9364 1472.3333
10 South.site 247.8890 interpolated 1 0.975 451.9783 404.8069 499.1497
12 South.site 247.8890 interpolated 2 0.975 205.6565 174.9561 236.3569
The function ggiNEXT()
, which extends ggplot2
to the "iNextPD"
object with default arguments, is described as follows:
ggiNEXT(x, type=1, se=TRUE, facet.var="none", color.var="site", grey=FALSE)
Here x
is an "iNextPD"
object. Three types of curves are allowed:
-
Sample-size-based R/E curve (
type=1
): this curve plots diversity estimates with confidence intervals (ifse=TRUE
) as a function of sample size up to double the reference sample size, by default, or a user‐specifiedendpoint
. -
Sample completeness curve (
type=2
) with confidence intervals (ifse=TRUE
): this curve plots the sample coverage with respect to sample size for the same range described in (1). -
Coverage-based R/E curve (
type=3
): this curve plots the diversity estimates with confidence intervals (ifse=TRUE
) as a function of sample coverage up to the maximum coverage obtained from the maximum size described in (1).
The argument facet.var=("none", "order", "site" or "both")
is used to create a separate plot for each value of the specified variable. For example, the following code displays a separate plot for each value of the diversity order q. The user may also use the argument grey=TRUE
to plot black/white figures. The usage of color.var is illustrated in the incidence data example described in later text. The ggiNEXT()
function is a wrapper around ggplot2
package to create a R/E curve using a single line of code. The resulting object is of class "ggplot"
, so can be manipulated using the ggplot2
tools.
out <- iNextPD(bird$abun, bird.lab, bird.phy,
q=c(0, 1, 2), datatype="abundance", endpoint=400)
# Sample‐size‐based R/E curves, separating by "site""
ggiNEXT(out, type=1, facet.var="site")
## Not run:
# Sample‐size‐based R/E curves, separating by "order"
ggiNEXT(out, type=1, facet.var="order")
# display black‐white theme
ggiNEXT(out, type=1, facet.var="order", grey=TRUE)
## End(Not run)
The argument facet.var="site"
in ggiNEXT
function creates a separate plot for each site as shown below:
# Sample‐size‐based R/E curves, separating by "site""
ggiNEXT(out, type=1, facet.var="site")
The argument facet.var="order"
and color.var="site"
creates a separate plot for each diversity order site, and within each plot, different colors are used for two sites.
ggiNEXT(out, type=1, facet.var="order", color.var="site")
The following commands return the sample completeness curve in which different colors are used for the two sites:
ggiNEXT(out, type=2, facet.var="none", color.var="site")
The following commands return the coverage‐based R/E sampling curves in which different colors are used for the two sites (facet.var="site"
) and for three orders (facet.var="order"
)
ggiNEXT(out, type=3, facet.var="site")
ggiNEXT(out, type=3, facet.var="order", color.var="site")
The argument color.var = ("none", "order", "site" or "both")
is used to display curves in different colors for values of the specified variable. For example, the following code using the argument color.var="site"
displays the sampling curves in different colors for the five sites. Note that theme_bw()
is a ggplot2 function to modify display setting from grey background to black‐and‐white. The following commands return three types R/E sampling curves for ant data.
out.inc <- iNextPD(bird$inci, bird.lab, bird.phy,
q=0, datatype="incidence_raw",
endpoint = 25, se=TRUE)
# Sample‐size‐based R/E curves
ggiNEXT(out.inc, type=1, color.var="site") +
theme_bw(base_size = 18) +
theme(legend.position="none")
# Sample completeness curves
ggiNEXT(out.inc, type=2, color.var="site") +
xlim(c(5,25)) + ylim(c(0.7,1)) +
theme_bw(base_size = 18) +
theme(legend.position="none")
# Coverage‐based R/E curves
ggiNEXT(out.inc, type=3, color.var ="site") +
xlim(c(0.7,1)) +
theme_bw(base_size = 18) +
theme(legend.position="bottom",
legend.title=element_blank())
The ggiNEXT()
function is a wrapper around ggplot2
package to create a R/E curve using a single line of code. The resulting object is of class "ggplot"
, so can be manipulated using the ggplot2
tools. The following are some useful examples for customizing graphs.
out2 <- iNextPD(bird$abun, bird.lab, bird.phy,
q=c(0, 1, 2), datatype="abundance",
endpoint=400, se=TRUE)
ggiNEXT(out2, type=3, facet.var="site") +
theme(legend.position="none")
ggiNEXT(out2, type=1, facet.var="site") +
theme_bw(base_size = 18) +
theme(legend.position="right")
ggiNEXT(out2, type=1, facet.var="order", grey=TRUE)
ggiNEXT(out2, type=1, facet.var="order") +
facet_wrap(~order, scales="free")
ggiNEXT(out2, type=1, facet.var="site") +
scale_shape_manual(values=c(19,19,19))
The data visualization package ggplot2
provides scale_
function to customize data which is mapped into an aesthetic property of a geom_
. The following functions would help user to customize ggiNEXT
output.
- change point shape:
scale_shape_manual
- change line type :
scale_linetype_manual
- change line color:
scale_colour_manual
- change band color:
scale_fill_manual
see quick reference for style setting.
To show how to custmized ggiNEXT
output, we use abundance-based data spider
as an example.
library(iNextPD)
library(ggplot2)
library(gridExtra)
data(bird)
bird.lab <- rownames(bird$abun)
bird.phy <- ade4::newick2phylog(bird$tre)
out <- iNextPD(bird$abun, bird.lab, bird.phy, q=0,
datatype="abundance", se=TRUE)
g <- ggiNEXT(out, type=1, color.var = "site")
g
g1 <- g + scale_shape_manual(values=c(11, 12)) +
scale_linetype_manual(values=c(1,2))
g2 <- g + scale_colour_manual(values=c("red", "blue")) +
scale_fill_manual(values=c("red", "blue"))
# Draw multiple graphical objec on a page
# library(gridExtra)
grid.arrange(g1, g2, ncol=2)
In order to chage the size of reference sample point or rarefaction/extrapolation curve, user need modify ggplot
object.
- change point size:
the reference sample size point is drawn on the first layer by
ggiNEXT
. Hacking point size by the following
# point is drawn on the 1st layer, default size is 5
gb3 <- ggplot_build(g)
gb3$data[[1]]$size <- 10
gt3 <- ggplot_gtable(gb3)
# use grid.draw to draw the graphical object
# library(grid)
# grid.draw(gt3)
- change line width (size):
the reference sample size point is drawn on the second layer by
ggiNEXT
. Hacking point size by the following
# line is drawn on the 2nd layer, default size is 1.5
gb4 <- ggplot_build(g)
gb4$data[[2]]$size <- 3
gt4 <- ggplot_gtable(gb4)
# grid.draw(gt4)
grid.arrange(gt3, gt4, ncol=2)
A ggplot
object can be themed by adding a theme. User could run help(theme_grey)
to show the default themes in ggplot2
. Further, some extra themes provided by ggthemes
package. Examples shown in the following:
g5 <- g + theme_bw() +
theme(legend.position = "bottom", legend.box = "vertical")
g6 <- g + theme_classic() +
theme(legend.position = "bottom", legend.box = "vertical")
grid.arrange(g5, g6, ncol=2)
library(ggthemes)
g7 <- g + theme_hc(bgcolor = "darkunica") +
theme(legend.box = "vertical") +
scale_colour_hc("darkunica")
g8 <- g + theme_economist() +
theme(legend.box = "vertical") +
scale_colour_economist()
grid.arrange(g7, g8, ncol=2)
The following are custmized themes for black-white figure. To modifiy legend, see Cookbook for R for more details.
g9 <- g + theme_bw(base_size = 18) +
scale_fill_grey(start = 0, end = .4) +
scale_colour_grey(start = .2, end = .2) +
theme(legend.position="bottom",
legend.title=element_blank(),
legend.box = "vertical")
g10 <- g + theme_tufte(base_size = 12) +
scale_fill_grey(start = 0, end = .4) +
scale_colour_grey(start = .2, end = .2) +
theme(legend.position="bottom",
legend.title=element_blank(),
legend.box = "vertical")
grid.arrange(g9, g10, ncol=2)
In iNextPD
, we provide a S3 ggplot2::fortify
method for class iNextPD
. The function fortify
offers a single plotting interface for rarefaction/extrapolation curves. Set argument type = 1, 2, 3
to plot the corresponding rarefaction/extrapolation curves.
df <- fortify(out, type=1)
head(df)
datatype plottype site method order x y y.lwr y.upr
1 abundance 1 North.site interpolated 0 1 82.858 77.440 88.275
2 abundance 1 North.site interpolated 0 12 428.313 393.504 463.122
3 abundance 1 North.site interpolated 0 23 607.781 563.145 652.417
4 abundance 1 North.site interpolated 0 34 726.034 674.983 777.084
5 abundance 1 North.site interpolated 0 45 811.060 753.490 868.630
6 abundance 1 North.site interpolated 0 56 876.145 811.845 940.445
df.point <- df[which(df$method=="observed"),]
df.line <- df[which(df$method!="observed"),]
df.line$method <- factor(df.line$method,
c("interpolated", "extrapolated"),
c("interpolation", "extrapolation"))
ggplot(df, aes(x=x, y=y, colour=site)) +
geom_point(aes(shape=site), size=5, data=df.point) +
geom_line(aes(linetype=method), lwd=1.5, data=df.line) +
geom_ribbon(aes(ymin=y.lwr, ymax=y.upr,
fill=site, colour=NULL), alpha=0.2) +
labs(x="Number of individuals", y="Phylogenetic diversity") +
theme(legend.position = "bottom",
legend.title=element_blank(),
text=element_text(size=18),
legend.box = "vertical")
The iNextPD package is licensed under the GPLv3. To help refine iNextPD
, your comments or feedbacks would be welcome (please send them to T. C. Hsieh or report an issue on iNextPD github reop).
If you publish your work based on results from iNextPD
(R package), please make reference to Hsieh and Chao (2016) and Chao et al. (2015) given in the following list.
- Chao, A., Gotelli, N.J., Hsieh, T.C., Sander, E.L., Ma, K.H., Colwell, R.K. & Ellison, A.M. (2014) Rarefaction and extrapolation with Hill numbers: a framework for sampling and estimation in species diversity studies. Ecological Monographs, 84, 45–67.
- Chao A., Chiu C.H., Hsieh T.C., Davis T., Nipperess D.A. & Faith D.P. (2015) Rarefaction and extrapolation of phylogenetic diversity.Method Ecol. Evol. 6:380–388.
- Hsieh, T.C., Ma, K.H. and Chao, A. (2016) iNEXT: an R package for rarefaction and extrapolation of species diversity (Hill numbers). Methods Ecol Evol.
- Jetz, W., Thomas, G.H., Joy, J.B., Hartmann, K. & Mooers A.O. (2012) The global diversity of birds in space and time. Nature, 491, 444-448.