2020 Q2 update

PSLmodels · Jul 20, 2020 · 75d1a78 · 75d1a78
1 parent 8a77117
commit 75d1a78
Show file tree

Hide file tree

Showing 19 changed files with 309 additions and 306 deletions.
diff --git a/PCI-China/figures/Others/figure 3.png b/PCI-China/figures/Others/figure 3.png
diff --git a/PCI-China/figures/Others/figure_1.png b/PCI-China/figures/Others/figure_1.png
diff --git a/PCI-China/figures/Others/figure_2.png b/PCI-China/figures/Others/figure_2.png
diff --git a/PCI-China/figures/Others/figure_4.png b/PCI-China/figures/Others/figure_4.png
diff --git a/PCI-China/figures/Others/figure_5.png b/PCI-China/figures/Others/figure_5.png
diff --git a/PCI-China/figures/Summary statistics.csv b/PCI-China/figures/Summary statistics.csv
diff --git a/PCI-China/figures/pci.csv b/PCI-China/figures/pci.csv
@@ -272,7 +272,8 @@ batch_size,body_text_combined,data_text,decay,embedding_matrix_path,embedding_pa
 256,1,.//data/output/database.db,2.2667573923140945e-4,.//data/output/embedding_matrix.pkl,.//data/output/embedding.pkl,100,0.13049157533711922,2,24,0.6818565400843881,3,0.6484751203852327,0.7188612099644128,1,0.0010703117495416067,0.01800867771098071,5,83,50,187,0.30604382807045677,2,540,1547135043,.//models/window_5_years_quarterly/,60,7,132,3,0.7253039513677813,0.7112518628912071,0.7399224806201551,"[1, 2]",./data/output/tokenizer.pkl,0.7957156767283349,0.7777918781725889,0.814485049833887,"[5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]",0.7298178331735379,0.7151446824502067,0.745105716523101,"[3, 4]",0.12572423692961773,2018,0.043447411283393134,0.043447411283393134,2018-09-30,Five-year window
 256,1,.//data/output/database.db,2.2889931343877203e-4,.//data/output/embedding_matrix.pkl,.//data/output/embedding.pkl,100,0.10247971142884908,3,23,0.6518188567186339,3,0.564993564993565,0.7701754385964912,1,0.001454597290275472,0.024049492555804245,5,89,36,175,0.2545555320332287,2,485,1546389876,.//models/window_5_years_quarterly/,60,10,120,3,0.7249904906808673,0.701509017298491,0.7500983864620229,"[1, 2]",./data/output/tokenizer.pkl,0.7930280421919218,0.7570919808424413,0.8325455773126266,"[5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]",0.732865008543763,0.70079883805374,0.7680063668921607,"[3, 4]",0.11935529523643457,2018,0.07317163396223336,0.07317163396223336,2018-12-31,Five-year window
 256,1,.//data/output/database.db,1.767835939678548e-4,.//data/output/embedding_matrix.pkl,.//data/output/embedding.pkl,100,0.05638871748419686,1,20,0.61198738170347,3,0.6830985915492958,0.5542857142857143,1,0.001267829364936187,0.014102757564333055,4,150,32,110,0.18844952252047598,1,536,1554902532,.//models/window_5_years_quarterly/,60,1,128,3,0.7431174489998019,0.7426761678543151,0.7435592548553309,"[1, 2]",./data/output/tokenizer.pkl,0.8284889575082232,0.8172427493047278,0.8400490062619113,"[5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]",0.7492050874403815,0.7430035474970438,0.7555110220440882,"[3, 4]",0.10944505912742712,2019,0.13113006729633192,0.13113006729633192,2019-03-31,Five-year window
-256,1,.//Data/Output/database.db,1.696358831266615e-4,.//Data/Output/embedding_matrix.pkl,.//Data/Output/embedding.pkl,100,0.03652758477942355,2,20,0.6509877704609595,3,0.7253668763102725,0.590443686006826,1,0.0016052268875097744,0.008002305059248458,4,151,58,98,0.2539050085546229,1,1048,1590994957,.//models/window_5_years_quarterly/,60,4,151,3,0.7469198141789538,0.7546938775510204,0.7393042782886845,"[1, 2]",.//Data/Output/tokenizer.pkl,0.8378820960698691,0.8323166598888437,0.8435224618766314,"[5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]",0.7475609756097561,0.7512254901960784,0.7439320388349514,"[3, 4]",0.1291524401971607,2019,0.09593204371799435,0.09593204371799435,2019-06-30,Five-year window
-256,1,.//Data/Output/database.db,1.5071135200990214e-4,.//Data/Output/embedding_matrix.pkl,.//Data/Output/embedding.pkl,100,0.03111202326532845,1,16,0.6801099908340972,3,0.6960600375234521,0.6648745519713262,1,0.0019505183428182103,0.014731896885448783,6,211,37,109,0.19966577105166955,5,472,1590832454,.//models/window_5_years_quarterly/,60,7,163,3,0.7458888018794049,0.7229601518026565,0.770319450060655,"[1, 2]",.//Data/Output/tokenizer.pkl,0.8382860175112762,0.8013950538998098,0.8787373105270477,"[5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]",0.7443519619500595,0.72175249807840125,0.7684124386252046,"[3, 4]",0.1201979780499532,2019,0.0657788110453077,0.0657788110453077,2019-09-30,Five-year window
-256,1,.//Data/Output/database.db,1.8875678659841032e-4,.//Data/Output/embedding_matrix.pkl,.//Data/Output/embedding.pkl,100,0.03608322621386294,1,10,0.6475247524752475,3,0.7431818181818182,0.5736842105263158,1,0.0012180981703163024,0.009015114289450494,5,172,88,96,0.26151700336037553,7,526,1590863251,.//models/window_5_years_quarterly/,60,10,93,3,0.7413793103448276,0.7671888598781549,0.7172497965825875,"[1, 2]",.//Data/Output/tokenizer.pkl,0.8227839188903753,0.8277376398923361,0.8178891377379619,"[5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]",0.7426517234087544,0.7631464580617123,0.7232289950576606,"[3, 4]",0.0900929980620096,2019,0.09385455786958008,0.09385455786958008,2019-12-31,Five-year window
-256,1,.//Data/Output/database.db,1.4367566773402946e-4,.//Data/Output/embedding_matrix.pkl,.//Data/Output/embedding.pkl,100,0.027560462397414498,5,33,0.6901408450704225,3,0.8365853658536585,0.5873287671232876,1,0.0010612054153517406,0.012759152871911495,3,839,44,183,0.08230535368344011,6,617,1591105418,.//models/window_5_years_quarterly/,60,1,199,3,0.7696160267111853,0.7870251813913786,0.7529603919967334,"[1, 2]",.//Data/Output/tokenizer.pkl,0.8361038409846501,0.8411614005123825,0.8311067360427506,"[5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]",0.7665475940323597,0.7791542076035882,0.7543424317617866,"[3, 4]",0.13639559494936482,2020,0.07947518164076284,0.07947518164076284,2020-03-31,Five-year window
+256,1,.//Data/Output/database.db,1.2042767581756215e-4,.//Data/Output/embedding_matrix.pkl,.//Data/Output/embedding.pkl,100,0.026690901967085113,3,22,0.6471163245356794,3,0.7574370709382151,0.5648464163822525,1,8.791560038518877e-4,0.007918573045076788,3,180,63,81,0.38248614308607115,4,1316,1593798799,.//models/window_5_years_quarterly/,60,4,138,3,0.7720542231491135,0.8068875326939843,0.7401039584166333,"[1, 2]",.//Data/Output/tokenizer.pkl,0.8491361146228402,0.8686592901278919,0.83047121857398,"[5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]",0.7504208754208755,0.7820175438596492,0.7212783171521036,"[3, 4]",0.07566836871114789,2019,0.12493789861343418,0.12493789861343418,2019-06-30,Five-year window
+256,1,.//Data/Output/database.db,1.306209409218977e-4,.//Data/Output/embedding_matrix.pkl,.//Data/Output/embedding.pkl,100,0.03301322610688721,1,16,0.709502262443439,3,0.716636197440585,0.7025089605734767,1,0.002137808742860219,0.01198953801894055,6,226,52,111,0.2240916377560858,6,488,1593626400,.//models/window_5_years_quarterly/,60,7,155,3,0.7588652482269503,0.7399154821359969,0.7788111605337646,"[1, 2]",.//Data/Output/tokenizer.pkl,0.8486811661267931,0.8088457661290323,0.8926435822555973,"[5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]",0.7422434367541766,0.7221362229102167,0.7635024549918167,"[3, 4]",0.1555863257208498,2019,0.04936298578351139,0.04936298578351139,2019-09-30,Five-year window
+256,1,.//Data/Output/database.db,1.513762832616916e-4,.//Data/Output/embedding_matrix.pkl,.//Data/Output/embedding.pkl,100,0.035966177116647034,1,9,0.6858736059479553,3,0.7292490118577075,0.6473684210526316,1,0.0012175107314045506,0.0096267898433050475,5,508,122,84,0.13179621479675602,7,301,1594303514,.//models/window_5_years_quarterly/,60,10,106,3,0.7668125746120175,0.7503894080996885,0.7839707078925956,"[1, 2]",.//Data/Output/tokenizer.pkl,0.8504786301739248,0.8202860858257477,0.8829787234042553,"[5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]",0.7587878787878788,0.7446471054718478,0.7734761120263591,"[3, 4]",0.1002978822500567,2019,0.08093896866406214,0.08093896866406214,2019-12-31,Five-year window
+256,1,.//Data/Output/database.db,2.2011517352374605e-4,.//Data/Output/embedding_matrix.pkl,.//Data/Output/embedding.pkl,100,0.03522368341481125,3,40,0.7071729957805907,3,0.697171381031614,0.7174657534246576,1,7.583963951587321e-4,0.010472709915812988,2,932,47,75,0.07669871458766869,7,1282,1595150751,.//models/window_5_years_quarterly/,60,1,300,3,0.7813189015834836,0.7673228346456693,0.7958350347080441,"[1, 2]",.//Data/Output/tokenizer.pkl,0.8482294569428396,0.8208366219415943,0.8775137111517367,"[5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]",0.7627774384035838,0.7513036502206177,0.7746071133167908,"[3, 4]",0.10269048286405325,2020,0.07414590580289293,0.07414590580289293,2020-03-31,Five-year window
+256,1,.//Data/Output/database.db,1.4324022949485277e-4,.//Data/Output/embedding_matrix.pkl,.//Data/Output/embedding.pkl,100,0.023179825168000736,3,36,0.6417212347988774,3,0.7,0.5924006908462867,1,0.0010379757595745404,0.009910288150109334,2,763,54,209,0.06643077923228234,3,851,1594938013,.//models/window_5_years_quarterly/,60,4,195,3,0.7715059362632785,0.7857445905812473,0.7577741407528642,"[1, 2]",.//Data/Output/tokenizer.pkl,0.8577476714648603,0.85895986433013,0.8565388951521984,"[5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]",0.7607594936708861,0.7741519965650494,0.7478224802986313,"[3, 4]",0.09759155314808439,2020,0.12978470146440102,0.12978470146440102,2020-06-30,Five-year window
diff --git a/PCI-China/figures/window_5_years_quarterly/F1_two_curves_5y.png b/PCI-China/figures/window_5_years_quarterly/F1_two_curves_5y.png
diff --git a/PCI-China/figures/window_5_years_quarterly/diff_with_events_5y.png b/PCI-China/figures/window_5_years_quarterly/diff_with_events_5y.png
diff --git a/PCI-China/figures/window_5_years_quarterly/diff_wo_events_5y.png b/PCI-China/figures/window_5_years_quarterly/diff_wo_events_5y.png
diff --git a/PCI-China/figures/window_5_years_quarterly/pci_with_events_5y.png b/PCI-China/figures/window_5_years_quarterly/pci_with_events_5y.png
diff --git a/PCI-China/figures/window_5_years_quarterly/pci_wo_events_5y.png b/PCI-China/figures/window_5_years_quarterly/pci_wo_events_5y.png
diff --git a/PCI-China/figures/window_5_years_quarterly/results.csv b/PCI-China/figures/window_5_years_quarterly/results.csv
@@ -272,7 +272,8 @@ batch_size,body_text_combined,data_text,decay,embedding_matrix_path,embedding_pa
 256,1,.//data/output/database.db,0.00017718662239091845,.//data/output/embedding_matrix.pkl,.//data/output/embedding.pkl,100,0.10131402888940792,4,35,0.6469465648854962,3,0.7687074829931972,0.5584843492586491,1,0.0008288290280875611,0.030583933934616704,3,179,31,177,0.19970536426287847,3,506,1546380971,.//models/window_5_years_quarterly/,60,4,273,3,0.752859477124183,0.8027003484320557,0.7088461538461538,"[1, 2]",./data/output/tokenizer.pkl,0.817618626182858,0.8449416068664697,0.7920073859140069,"[5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]",0.7543679342240494,0.8013100436681223,0.7126213592233009,"[3, 4]",0.11495769849838894,2018,0.10591291223868682,0.10591291223868682
 256,1,.//data/output/database.db,0.00022667573923140945,.//data/output/embedding_matrix.pkl,.//data/output/embedding.pkl,100,0.13049157533711922,2,24,0.6818565400843881,3,0.6484751203852327,0.7188612099644128,1,0.0010703117495416067,0.01800867771098071,5,83,50,187,0.30604382807045677,2,540,1547135043,.//models/window_5_years_quarterly/,60,7,132,3,0.7253039513677813,0.7112518628912071,0.7399224806201551,"[1, 2]",./data/output/tokenizer.pkl,0.7957156767283349,0.7777918781725889,0.814485049833887,"[5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]",0.7298178331735379,0.7151446824502067,0.745105716523101,"[3, 4]",0.12572423692961773,2018,0.043447411283393134,0.043447411283393134
 256,1,.//data/output/database.db,0.0001767835939678548,.//data/output/embedding_matrix.pkl,.//data/output/embedding.pkl,100,0.05638871748419686,1,20,0.61198738170347,3,0.6830985915492958,0.5542857142857143,1,0.001267829364936187,0.014102757564333055,4,150,32,110,0.18844952252047598,1,536,1554902532,.//models/window_5_years_quarterly/,60,1,128,3,0.7431174489998019,0.7426761678543151,0.7435592548553309,"[1, 2]",./data/output/tokenizer.pkl,0.8284889575082232,0.8172427493047278,0.8400490062619113,"[5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]",0.7492050874403815,0.7430035474970438,0.7555110220440882,"[3, 4]",0.10944505912742712,2019,0.13113006729633192,0.13113006729633192
-256,1,.//Data/Output/database.db,0.00018875678659841032,.//Data/Output/embedding_matrix.pkl,.//Data/Output/embedding.pkl,100,0.03608322621386294,1,10,0.6475247524752475,3,0.7431818181818182,0.5736842105263158,1,0.0012180981703163024,0.009015114289450494,5,172,88,96,0.26151700336037553,7,526,1590863251,.//models/window_5_years_quarterly/,60,10,93,3,0.7413793103448276,0.7671888598781549,0.7172497965825875,"[1, 2]",.//Data/Output/tokenizer.pkl,0.8227839188903753,0.8277376398923361,0.8178891377379619,"[5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]",0.7426517234087544,0.7631464580617123,0.7232289950576606,"[3, 4]",0.0900929980620096,2019,0.09385455786958008,0.09385455786958008
-256,1,.//Data/Output/database.db,0.0001696358831266615,.//Data/Output/embedding_matrix.pkl,.//Data/Output/embedding.pkl,100,0.03652758477942355,2,20,0.6509877704609595,3,0.7253668763102725,0.590443686006826,1,0.0016052268875097744,0.008002305059248458,4,151,58,98,0.2539050085546229,1,1048,1590994957,.//models/window_5_years_quarterly/,60,4,151,3,0.7469198141789538,0.7546938775510204,0.7393042782886845,"[1, 2]",.//Data/Output/tokenizer.pkl,0.8378820960698691,0.8323166598888437,0.8435224618766314,"[5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]",0.7475609756097561,0.7512254901960784,0.7439320388349514,"[3, 4]",0.1291524401971607,2019,0.09593204371799435,0.09593204371799435
-256,1,.//Data/Output/database.db,0.00015071135200990214,.//Data/Output/embedding_matrix.pkl,.//Data/Output/embedding.pkl,100,0.03111202326532845,1,16,0.6801099908340972,3,0.6960600375234521,0.6648745519713262,1,0.0019505183428182103,0.014731896885448783,6,211,37,109,0.19966577105166955,5,472,1590832454,.//models/window_5_years_quarterly/,60,7,163,3,0.7458888018794049,0.7229601518026565,0.770319450060655,"[1, 2]",.//Data/Output/tokenizer.pkl,0.8382860175112762,0.8013950538998098,0.8787373105270477,"[5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]",0.7443519619500595,0.7217524980784013,0.7684124386252046,"[3, 4]",0.1201979780499532,2019,0.0657788110453077,0.0657788110453077
-256,1,.//Data/Output/database.db,0.00014367566773402946,.//Data/Output/embedding_matrix.pkl,.//Data/Output/embedding.pkl,100,0.027560462397414498,5,33,0.6901408450704225,3,0.8365853658536585,0.5873287671232876,1,0.0010612054153517406,0.012759152871911495,3,839,44,183,0.08230535368344011,6,617,1591105418,.//models/window_5_years_quarterly/,60,1,199,3,0.7696160267111853,0.7870251813913786,0.7529603919967334,"[1, 2]",.//Data/Output/tokenizer.pkl,0.8361038409846501,0.8411614005123825,0.8311067360427506,"[5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]",0.7665475940323597,0.7791542076035882,0.7543424317617866,"[3, 4]",0.13639559494936482,2020,0.07947518164076284,0.07947518164076284
+256,1,.//Data/Output/database.db,0.0001513762832616916,.//Data/Output/embedding_matrix.pkl,.//Data/Output/embedding.pkl,100,0.035966177116647034,1,9,0.6858736059479553,3,0.7292490118577075,0.6473684210526316,1,0.0012175107314045506,0.009626789843305048,5,508,122,84,0.13179621479675602,7,301,1594303514,.//models/window_5_years_quarterly/,60,10,106,3,0.7668125746120175,0.7503894080996885,0.7839707078925956,"[1, 2]",.//Data/Output/tokenizer.pkl,0.8504786301739248,0.8202860858257477,0.8829787234042553,"[5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]",0.7587878787878788,0.7446471054718478,0.7734761120263591,"[3, 4]",0.1002978822500567,2019,0.08093896866406214,0.08093896866406214
+256,1,.//Data/Output/database.db,0.00012042767581756215,.//Data/Output/embedding_matrix.pkl,.//Data/Output/embedding.pkl,100,0.026690901967085113,3,22,0.6471163245356794,3,0.7574370709382151,0.5648464163822525,1,0.0008791560038518877,0.007918573045076788,3,180,63,81,0.38248614308607115,4,1316,1593798799,.//models/window_5_years_quarterly/,60,4,138,3,0.7720542231491135,0.8068875326939843,0.7401039584166333,"[1, 2]",.//Data/Output/tokenizer.pkl,0.8491361146228402,0.8686592901278919,0.83047121857398,"[5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]",0.7504208754208755,0.7820175438596492,0.7212783171521036,"[3, 4]",0.07566836871114789,2019,0.12493789861343418,0.12493789861343418
+256,1,.//Data/Output/database.db,0.0001306209409218977,.//Data/Output/embedding_matrix.pkl,.//Data/Output/embedding.pkl,100,0.03301322610688721,1,16,0.709502262443439,3,0.716636197440585,0.7025089605734767,1,0.002137808742860219,0.01198953801894055,6,226,52,111,0.2240916377560858,6,488,1593626400,.//models/window_5_years_quarterly/,60,7,155,3,0.7588652482269503,0.7399154821359969,0.7788111605337646,"[1, 2]",.//Data/Output/tokenizer.pkl,0.8486811661267931,0.8088457661290323,0.8926435822555973,"[5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]",0.7422434367541766,0.7221362229102167,0.7635024549918167,"[3, 4]",0.1555863257208498,2019,0.04936298578351139,0.04936298578351139
+256,1,.//Data/Output/database.db,0.00022011517352374605,.//Data/Output/embedding_matrix.pkl,.//Data/Output/embedding.pkl,100,0.03522368341481125,3,40,0.7071729957805907,3,0.697171381031614,0.7174657534246576,1,0.0007583963951587321,0.010472709915812988,2,932,47,75,0.07669871458766869,7,1282,1595150751,.//models/window_5_years_quarterly/,60,1,300,3,0.7813189015834836,0.7673228346456693,0.7958350347080441,"[1, 2]",.//Data/Output/tokenizer.pkl,0.8482294569428396,0.8208366219415943,0.8775137111517367,"[5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]",0.7627774384035838,0.7513036502206177,0.7746071133167908,"[3, 4]",0.10269048286405325,2020,0.07414590580289293,0.07414590580289293
+256,1,.//Data/Output/database.db,0.00014324022949485277,.//Data/Output/embedding_matrix.pkl,.//Data/Output/embedding.pkl,100,0.023179825168000736,3,36,0.6417212347988774,3,0.7,0.5924006908462867,1,0.0010379757595745404,0.009910288150109334,2,763,54,209,0.06643077923228234,3,851,1594938013,.//models/window_5_years_quarterly/,60,4,195,3,0.7715059362632785,0.7857445905812473,0.7577741407528642,"[1, 2]",.//Data/Output/tokenizer.pkl,0.8577476714648603,0.85895986433013,0.8565388951521984,"[5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]",0.7607594936708861,0.7741519965650494,0.7478224802986313,"[3, 4]",0.09759155314808439,2020,0.12978470146440102,0.12978470146440102
diff --git a/PCI-China/models/window_5_years_quarterly/2019_M10/best_pars.pkl b/PCI-China/models/window_5_years_quarterly/2019_M10/best_pars.pkl
diff --git a/PCI-China/models/window_5_years_quarterly/2019_M4/best_pars.pkl b/PCI-China/models/window_5_years_quarterly/2019_M4/best_pars.pkl
diff --git a/PCI-China/models/window_5_years_quarterly/2019_M7/best_pars.pkl b/PCI-China/models/window_5_years_quarterly/2019_M7/best_pars.pkl
diff --git a/PCI-China/models/window_5_years_quarterly/2020_M1/best_pars.pkl b/PCI-China/models/window_5_years_quarterly/2020_M1/best_pars.pkl
diff --git a/PCI-China/models/window_5_years_quarterly/2020_M4/best_pars.pkl b/PCI-China/models/window_5_years_quarterly/2020_M4/best_pars.pkl
diff --git a/PCI-China/src/figures.r b/PCI-China/src/figures.r
@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ common_format = function(){
                        seq.Date(as.Date("1960-01-01"), as.Date("2020-01-01"), by="10 years"),
                        as.Date("2020-01-01")), 
             date_label = "%Y", 
-            limits= as.Date(c("1950-01-01","2022-01-01")),
+            limits= as.Date(c("1950-01-01","2022-04-01")),
             expand = c(0, 0)
         ) 
     out = c(out, list(new))
@@ -67,7 +67,7 @@ figure_1 = function(input = "data/output/database.db"){
                        seq.Date(as.Date("1950-01-01"), as.Date("2020-01-01"), by="10 years"),
                        as.Date("2020-01-01")),
             date_label = "%Y",
-            limits = as.Date(c("1945-01-01","2022-01-01")),
+            limits = as.Date(c("1945-01-01","2022-04-01")),
             expand = c(0, 0)
         ) +
         xlab("Year") +