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Update markov_chains_I.md
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jstac authored Jun 5, 2024
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Expand Up @@ -82,16 +82,15 @@ In other words,

If $P$ is a stochastic matrix, then so is the $k$-th power $P^k$ for all $k \in \mathbb N$.

Checking this in {ref}`the last exercise <mc1_ex_3>` below.
You are asked to check this in {ref}`an exercise <mc1_ex_3>` below.


### Markov chains

Now we can introduce Markov chains.

Before defining a Markov chain rigorously, we'll give some examples.

(Among other things, defining a Markov chain will clarify a connection between **stochastic matrices** and **Markov chains**.)


(mc_eg2)=
#### Example 1
Expand All @@ -110,7 +109,7 @@ Here there are three **states**
* "mr" represents mild recession
* "sr" represents severe recession

The arrows represent **transition probabilities** over one month.
The arrows represent transition probabilities over one month.

For example, the arrow from mild recession to normal growth has 0.145 next to it.

Expand All @@ -120,7 +119,7 @@ The arrow from normal growth back to normal growth tells us that there is a
97% probability of transitioning from normal growth to normal growth (staying
in the same state).

Note that these are *conditional* probabilities --- the probability of
Note that these are conditional probabilities --- the probability of
transitioning from one state to another (or staying at the same one) conditional on the
current state.

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