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Updated README
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# AI4ER MRes GTC - Earthquake Predictability
# AI4ER MRes GTC 2024 - Earthquake Predictability

<table>
<tr align="center">
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## Overview

Earthquakes have substantial worldwide effects, and accurate forecasting can
greatly assist in emergency responses and preparedness efforts. Slow Slip
Events (SSEs), exhibit quasi-periodic patterns, making them more predictable
and significant for earthquake forecasting research. SSEs contribute to the
moment budget, play a part in the seismic cycle, and may even trigger regular
earthquakes. Due to the highly non-linear nature of friction and the potential
significance of short and long-term patterns in SSEs, machine learning (ML),
Earthquakes have substantial worldwide effects, and accurate forecasting can
greatly assist in emergency responses and preparedness efforts. Slow Slip
Events (SSEs), exhibit quasi-periodic patterns, making them more predictable
and significant for earthquake forecasting research. SSEs contribute to the
moment budget, play a part in the seismic cycle, and may even trigger regular
earthquakes. Due to the highly non-linear nature of friction and the potential
significance of short and long-term patterns in SSEs, machine learning (ML),
especially deep learning, is utilized.

SSEs are observed in nature, reproduced in laboratories, and simulated using
various techniques. Previous studies have used ML in slow earthquake research
for detection, time to failure prediction, and time-series forecasting,
SSEs are observed in nature, reproduced in laboratories, and simulated using
various techniques. Previous studies have used ML in slow earthquake research
for detection, time to failure prediction, and time-series forecasting,
employing different ML architectures.

In this research project, we employed machine learning techniques to predict
labquakes and Slow Slip Events (SSEs). Our study addressed three key research
questions: (1) matching the state-of-the-art accuracy for labquake predictions
and improving performance through feature engineering, (2) applying our LSTM
and TCN models to Cascadia data for single and multiple segment forecasts, and
(3) investigating the impact of pre-training with simulated data and lab data
and transfer learning to Cascadia. We achieved a 9.4% performance enhancement
for labquake predictions, obtained maximum R^2 scores of 0.8729 and 0.5219 for
Cascadia forecasts, and found that pre-training marginally improved labquake
predictions. However, transfer learning results for Cascadia remained
inconclusive. Notably, the LSTM model consistently outperformed the TCN model
In this research project, we employed machine learning techniques to predict
labquakes and Slow Slip Events (SSEs). Our study addressed three key research
questions: (1) matching the state-of-the-art accuracy for labquake predictions
and improving performance through feature engineering, (2) applying our LSTM
and TCN models to Cascadia data for single and multiple segment forecasts, and
(3) investigating the impact of pre-training with simulated data and lab data
and transfer learning to Cascadia. We achieved a 9.4% performance enhancement
for labquake predictions, obtained maximum R^2 scores of 0.8729 and 0.5219 for
Cascadia forecasts, and found that pre-training marginally improved labquake
predictions. However, transfer learning results for Cascadia remained
inconclusive. Notably, the LSTM model consistently outperformed the TCN model
across all domains.

## Repo structure

* [archive/](./archive/) for all the archived code written as part of the
* [archive/](./archive/) for all the archived code written as part of the
project
* [assets/](./assets/) for assets such as user profile pictures used in the README
* [notebooks/](./notebooks/) for the main Jupyter notebooks of the project
* [scripts/](./scripts/) for the training scripts and PyTorch models
* [scripts/models/](./scripts/models/) for the models developed
* [utils/](./utils/) for the main utilities used to develop our pre-processing
* [utils/](./utils/) for the main utilities used to develop our pre-processing
pipeline

## Data
Expand All @@ -72,12 +72,12 @@ Below are links to the original dataset used in our repository.

To get setup and tryout the code, follow these steps:

1. Install Miniconda or Anaconda (if not already installed) from the official
1. Install Miniconda or Anaconda (if not already installed) from the official
website: <https://docs.conda.io/en/latest/miniconda.html>
1. Open a terminal or command prompt.
1. Clone the repository to your local machine.
1. Navigate to the repository root.
1. Create a new conda environment using the yaml file by running the following
1. Create a new conda environment using the yaml file by running the following
command:
```bash
conda env create -f environment.yaml
Expand All @@ -86,16 +86,16 @@ command:
```bash
conda activate gtc_env
```
1. To enable the `utils` packages to be accessible to the Python path, run the
1. To enable the `utils` packages to be accessible to the Python path, run the
following command:
```bash
conda develop “<your local path>/earthquake-predictability"
```
Note: The code was tested on Python 3.12.
To get started we recommend taking a look at
[notebooks/AI4ER GTC - Slow Earthquake Time Series Forecasting.ipynb](./notebooks/AI4ER%20GTC%20-%20Slow%20Earthquake%20Time%20Series%20Forecasting.ipynb).
To get started we recommend taking a look at
[notebooks/AI4ER GTC - Slow Earthquake Time Series Forecasting.ipynb](./notebooks/AI4ER%20GTC%20-%20Slow%20Earthquake%20Time%20Series%20Forecasting.ipynb).
This notebook provides a full overview of the pipeline and documentation.
## License
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## Acknowledgments
We would like to thank our faculty supervisor Dr Adriano Gualandi as well as our
project mentor Andrew McDonald. We benefited greatly from their guidance and
We would like to thank our faculty supervisor Dr Adriano Gualandi as well as our
project mentor Andrew McDonald. We benefited greatly from their guidance and
support.
## Team Members
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