Tracking Covid19 trend in Trento Province.
- Trend in Trento Province
- Facts
- Impact on economics
- Impact on health
- Solutions
- Dashboards
- Other lectures
- Software development
- Deliveries in Trento
Data source: Protezione civile
| Date | Total infected | New infected | Growth rate | Link |
| 11/03 | 74 | ? | ? | Link |
| 12/03 | 102 | 28 | 38% | Link |
| 13/03 | 157 | 55 | 54% | Link |
| 14/03 | 199 | 42 | 27% | Link |
| 15/03 | 367 | 168 | 84% | Link |
| 16/03 | 440 | 73 | 20% | Link |
| 17/03 | 591 | 151 | 34% | Link |
| 18/03 | 719 | 128 | 22% | Link |
| 19/03 | 857 | 138 | 19% | Link |
| 20/03 | 1067 | 210 | 25% | Link |
| 21/03 | 1306 | 239 | 23% | Link |
| 22/03 | 1480 | 175 | 13% | Link |
| 23/03 | 1611 | 131 | 9% | Link |
| 24/03 | 1824 | 213 | 13% | Link |
| 25/03 | 2001 | 177 | 10% | Link |
| 26/03 | 2122 | 121 | 6% | Link |
| 27/03 | 2236 | 114 | 6% | Link |
| 28/03 | 2239 | 3 | 0.2% | Link |
| 29/03 | 2306 | 67 | 3% | Link |
| 30/03 | 2408 | 102 | 4% | Link |
| 31/03 | 2453 | 45 | 2% | Link |
| 1/04 | 2550 | 97 | 4% | Link |
| 2/04 | 2664 | 114 | 5% | Link |
| 3/04 | 2839 | 175 | 7% | Link |
| 4/04 | 2934 | 95 | 3.3% | Link |
| 5/04 | 3042 | 108 | 4% | Link |
| 6/04 | 3111 | 69 | 3% | Link |
| 7/04 | 3236 | 125 | 4% | Link |
| 8/04 | 3342 | 106 | 3% | Link |
| 9/04 | 3431 | 89 | 3% | Link |
| 10/04 | 3524 | 93 | 3% | Link |
| 11/04 | 3669 | 145 | 4% | Link |
| 12/04 | Link | |||
| 13/04 | Link | |||
| 14/04 | Link | |||
| 15/04 | Link | |||
| 16/04 | Link | |||
| 17/04 | Link |
- number of new infected per days is decreasing over time. I think we reached the peak, and number of new infected should further decrease on next weeks
- growth during last 3 days in 19%-25%
- Ansa.it have each day an higher number of infected than Protezione Civile. The higher number could be due to different way of counting - they start to count +10 infected for each new infected - to take into account the potential and not yet measured spread and try to get a more real number of infected
- in the last 3 days growth rate seems stable between 20%-35%
- count by municipality - in Trento 118 infected. 38 new infected in 2 days, from 16/03/2020. Growth rate by 46%
- growth rate back to 20%. No further insights can be derived, given lack of any pattern during recent days
- count by municipality - 84 infected in Trento
- growth rate drammatically increases, to 84%, the highest in recent days. Probably still a result from the time before lockdown, or lockdown not correctly observed or not working correctly in some areas
- growth rate decreased from 54% to 27%. However, it could still increase, due to 2 weeks incubation period, that makes spread measurements uncertain
- because of lockdown (started on March 10th), growth rate should go to almost 0% on March 24th
- actual risks not included in the prediction:
- commuters going back to their city of birth, happening these recent days
- people in touch with actual infected, that could get infected
- people living in foreign countries that adopted lockdown too late (eg UK, Germany, Spain) and that could travel to Italy
Predictions
- in Wuhan, lockdown started when infected people were 500 Link Link2. It was on January 23rd. On March 14th the number grew to about 80.000
- in Italy, lockdown started when number of infected were 5.883 Link. It was March 7th. Governement estimates to reach the peak of 92.000 infected on March 18th Link. On March 14th number of infected is 17.750. The growth rate of the recent days is about +3.000 infected per day
Curiosity
More recent data
- [2020-08-07][Travel]EasyJet Q2 EBITDA -320m (vs 2019 Q2 +174m )
- [2020-08-07][Fashion]Prada Q1-Q2 -140m (=-40%)
- [2020-08-07][Luxury Car]+571m, -40% compared to 2019
Key takeaways
- economy have network effects: the crisis, started from sectors like tourism (eg Airbnb lost 90% of their revenue), will propagate progressively to connected sectors, with possibility to expand exponentially
- priorities for companies:
- plan for enough runway to arrive at the end of the crisis
- become more efficient
- search for new business models, also by re-evaluating how technology, insights and analytics can fuel future growth
- keep CX high
- privacy: collection of personal data is changing or needs a change
- tracking is essential to fight the virus (e.g. Singapore, South Korea). A vaccine is expected in 12-18 months (2021), on the short term there is no other solution. Without tracking, lockdown period will be longer, economic impact will be much bigger
- almost "need of tracking" > "need of protection personal data"
- hot trends in technology
- fight of delinquencies - e.g. to distribute correctly helps from the governement
- tracking and protection of personal data - eg empower community managers to expand tracking technologies to their members
- support for remote experience - eg apps for video calls, CX analytics, virtual events, cloud infrastructure
- on-demand food and services delivery
Articles
- 12 steps to move digital transformation faster during covid19
- covid19 drives recession damaging automotive, consumer electronics and semiconductors globally (2020-04-10)
- How Covid-19 will impact IT and tech spending for 2020 and beyond
- how covid 19 is impacting software development hiring
- How covid19 is impacting data jobs (2020-04-03)
- Dozens have laid off thousands, slashed costs and changed their businesses to try to survive the pandemic. All that may not work.
- (IT) Famiglie e imprese, per il dopo conterà il digitale
- the ceo playbook for keeping your company alive
- 50% of small business gone. Walmart stock is at record high & Amazon is hiring 100k people - 20/03/2020
- Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses (21/03/2020)
- How Chinese companies have responded to Coronavirus
- 150 public traded companies have warned investors
- DHL Update (10/03/2020)
- Philips China supply chains recovering from disruption will hit results
- Stop the European Central Bank
- Bloomberg / five early warning economic indicators show us virus shock - 14/03/2020
- McKinsey Report - 28/02/2020
- Philips - Statement - 18/03/2020
- DHL - Statement - 10/03/2020
- How Coronavirus kills
- Potential permanent damages after recovery
- 7 importanting things to know about Coronaviruses