These materials were created for "The Basics of DNA Evidence" workshop taught by the Forensic University in Spring 2022.
By the end of the course, you will be able to
- explain what are probabilities and how they are computed in practice
- select the correct probability rule depending on the situation: product rule, addition rule or conditional probabilities rule
- describe the main fallacies when interpreting probabilities
| Topic | Key take-away points | Lecture notes |
|---|---|---|
| 1. What is probability? | i) When it comes to probabilities, we do not trust our gut, we trust the formulas; ii) We estimate population probabilities from observed frequencies in samples; iii) The chosen sample is very important | notes |
| 2. How do we combine probabilities? | i) Product rule: we can calculate the probability of simultaneous events when they are independent; ii) Addition rule: we can calculate the probability of different disjoint events | notes |
| 3. How do we update probabilities when new information is available? | i) The conditional probability allows us to update a probability with new information; ii) Very important not to confuse the conditioning event as probabilities would change | notes |
You can find the 90-minute lecture including all three topics in this link.
Claudia Solís-Lemus is an assistant professor at the Wisconsin Institute for Discovery and the Department of Plant Pathology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Originally from Mexico City, she did her Undergraduate degrees in Actuarial Sciences and Applied Mathematics at ITAM. Then, she did a MA in Mathematics and a PhD in Statistics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
