SEI_Lib 0.3 Population_Cohort_Model

Population and their characteristics, together with the value and characteristics of physical assets exposed, constitute the most important sets for establishing linkages between hazard and risks from seismic events and socio-economic outcomes. The population model uses, as inputs population data, its distribution and other characteristics, at the lowest possible level of disaggregation, combined with a set of assumptions for demographic related variables (and, possibly, shocks from hypothetical seismic events) for a multi-anual population forecast, together with key population attributes (geographical, education, health, labor market and others). A population cohort model is used, based on a system dynamics framework.

link_to_notes (this goes to etherpad)

• Assumptions

  • The disaggregated data is in two different resolutions: One at defined by geographic coordinates, and other by geo-political criteria.
  • The Population Cohort Model will use as inputs the information from Seismic Risk & Hazard and socio economic (demographic) assumptions.
  • The Population Cohort Model will have the capacity to use inputs from other Risks & Hazards.
  • There exists a set of equations from which we can calculate time flow of population given a matrix of population seed.
  • The Population Cohort Model output is intended to be used as an input to the Macro and Micro Economy Segment Calculator.
  • The Population Cohort Model will feed back to the Risk Model. Risk analysis of repeated seismic event over a time horizon can be calculated with data from the Population Cohort Model.

• Design

The Population Cohort Model consists of a population matrix, which represent the population (stock) at a given point of time, geographically disaggregated (grids) with their individual components set of attributes (age, gender, education status, etc) which is re-estimated at every point of time (year-by-year basis) based on initial characteristics, assumptions regarding demographic variables (fertility rate, mortality rate, intra and international migration patterns) social and economic inputs and effects of policies. The model allows for the effect of socio-economic shocks and those originated in the natural World (natural hazards) via their impact on population stocks and other variables.

• User stories:

  • Some user should be able to X.
  • Some user needs to be able to Y.

• Suggested Implementation

The model should integrate into OpenQuake as a set of models similar to the existing Hazard & Risk models. It should be possible to run as a sub-task in an existing openquake / RiskLib job.

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