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alternative progs with smaller changes #405

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alternative progs with smaller changes #405

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57f936a
alternative progs
nicidob Jan 19, 2022
da2f60c
not sure I like this version. But need a checkpoint
nicidob Jan 30, 2022
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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion src/worker/core/draft/genPlayersWithoutSaving.ts
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -158,7 +158,7 @@ const genPlayersWithoutSaving = async (
}

// Small chance of making top 4 players (in 70 player draft) special - on average, one per draft class
if (existingPlayers.length === 0) {
if (!isSport("basketball") && existingPlayers.length === 0) {
const numSpecialPlayerChances = Math.round((4 / 70) * numPlayers);

for (let i = 0; i < numSpecialPlayerChances; i++) {
Expand Down
230 changes: 31 additions & 199 deletions src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -5,200 +5,34 @@ import type {
RatingKey,
} from "../../../common/types.basketball";

type RatingFormula = {
ageModifier: (age: number) => number;
changeLimits: (age: number) => [number, number];
};

const shootingFormula: RatingFormula = {
ageModifier: (age: number) => {
// Reverse most of the age-related decline in calcBaseChange
if (age <= 27) {
return 0;
}

if (age <= 29) {
return 0.5;
}

if (age <= 31) {
return 1.5;
}

return 2;
},
changeLimits: () => [-3, 13],
};
const iqFormula: RatingFormula = {
ageModifier: (age: number) => {
if (age <= 21) {
return 4;
}

if (age <= 23) {
return 3;
}

// Reverse most of the age-related decline in calcBaseChange
if (age <= 27) {
return 0;
}

if (age <= 29) {
return 0.5;
}

if (age <= 31) {
return 1.5;
}

return 2;
},
changeLimits: age => {
if (age >= 24) {
return [-3, 9];
}

// For 19: [-3, 32]
// For 23: [-3, 12]
return [-3, 7 + 5 * (24 - age)];
},
};
const ratingsFormulas: Record<Exclude<RatingKey, "hgt">, RatingFormula> = {
stre: {
ageModifier: () => 0,
changeLimits: () => [-Infinity, Infinity],
},
spd: {
ageModifier: (age: number) => {
if (age <= 27) {
return 0;
}

if (age <= 30) {
return -2;
}

if (age <= 35) {
return -3;
}

if (age <= 40) {
return -4;
}

return -8;
},
changeLimits: () => [-12, 2],
},
jmp: {
ageModifier: (age: number) => {
if (age <= 26) {
return 0;
}

if (age <= 30) {
return -3;
}

if (age <= 35) {
return -4;
}

if (age <= 40) {
return -5;
}

return -10;
},
changeLimits: () => [-12, 2],
},
endu: {
ageModifier: (age: number) => {
if (age <= 23) {
return random.uniform(0, 9);
}

if (age <= 30) {
return 0;
}

if (age <= 35) {
return -2;
}

if (age <= 40) {
return -4;
}

return -8;
},
changeLimits: () => [-11, 19],
},
dnk: {
ageModifier: (age: number) => {
// Like shootingForumla, except for old players
if (age <= 27) {
return 0;
}

return 0.5;
},
changeLimits: () => [-3, 13],
},
ins: shootingFormula,
ft: shootingFormula,
fg: shootingFormula,
tp: shootingFormula,
oiq: iqFormula,
diq: iqFormula,
drb: {
ageModifier: shootingFormula.ageModifier,
changeLimits: () => [-2, 5],
},
pss: {
ageModifier: shootingFormula.ageModifier,
changeLimits: () => [-2, 5],
},
reb: {
ageModifier: shootingFormula.ageModifier,
changeLimits: () => [-2, 5],
},
// (age coefficient, age offset) for mean, than std. dev.
const ratingsFormulas: Record<Exclude<RatingKey, "hgt">, Array<number>> = {
diq: [-0.1, 2.841, -0.95],
dnk: [-0.052, 1.781, 1.205],
drb: [0.097, -3.06, -0.014],
endu: [-0.52, 13.842, 2.301],
fg: [0.015, 0.07, 0.544],
ft: [0.155, -3.891, -0.071],
ins: [-0.032, 0.924, 0.756],
jmp: [-0.247, 5.446, 1.486],
oiq: [0.076, -2.039, 0.406],
pss: [0.157, -4.602, 0.288],
reb: [0.042, -0.964, -0.098],
spd: [-0.057, 0.44, 0.323],
stre: [-0.099, 2.675, 0.231],
tp: [0.138, -3.909, 0.68],
};

const calcBaseChange = (age: number, coachingRank: number): number => {
let val: number;

if (age <= 21) {
val = 2;
} else if (age <= 25) {
val = 1;
} else if (age <= 27) {
val = 0;
} else if (age <= 29) {
val = -1;
} else if (age <= 31) {
val = -2;
} else if (age <= 34) {
val = -3;
} else if (age <= 40) {
val = -4;
} else if (age <= 43) {
val = -5;
} else {
val = -6;
}
const base_coef = [-0.327, 8.0, 4.202];

// Noise
if (age <= 23) {
val += helpers.bound(random.realGauss(0, 5), -4, 20);
} else if (age <= 25) {
val += helpers.bound(random.realGauss(0, 5), -4, 10);
} else {
val += helpers.bound(random.realGauss(0, 3), -2, 4);
}
val = base_coef[0] * age + base_coef[1];
const std_base = base_coef[2];
const std_noise = helpers.bound(random.realGauss() * std_base, -1, 4);
val += std_noise;

// Modulate by coaching. g.get("numActiveTeams") doesn't exist when upgrading DB, but that doesn't matter
if (g.hasOwnProperty("numActiveTeams")) {
const numActiveTeams = g.get("numActiveTeams");
if (numActiveTeams > 1) {
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -230,21 +64,19 @@ const developSeason = (
ratings.hgt += 1;
}
}
const age_bounds = helpers.bound(age, 19, 50);

const baseChange = calcBaseChange(age, coachingRank);
const baseChange = calcBaseChange(age_bounds, coachingRank);

for (const key of helpers.keys(ratingsFormulas)) {
const ageModifier = ratingsFormulas[key].ageModifier(age);
const changeLimits = ratingsFormulas[key].changeLimits(age);

ratings[key] = limitRating(
ratings[key] +
helpers.bound(
(baseChange + ageModifier) * random.uniform(0.4, 1.4),
changeLimits[0],
changeLimits[1],
),
);
const ageModifier =
ratingsFormulas[key][0] * age_bounds + ratingsFormulas[key][1];
const ageStd = ratingsFormulas[key][2];

const ageChange =
ageModifier + helpers.bound(random.realGauss() * ageStd, -3, 5);
ratings[key] = limitRating(ratings[key] + baseChange + ageChange);
//console.log(baseChange,ageChange);
}
};

Expand Down
38 changes: 19 additions & 19 deletions src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -98,28 +98,28 @@ const genRatings = (

// Tall players are less talented, and all tend towards dumb and can't shoot because they are rookies
const rawRatings = {
stre: 37,
spd: 40,
jmp: 40,
endu: 17,
ins: 27,
dnk: 27,
ft: 32,
fg: 32,
tp: 32,
oiq: 22,
diq: 22,
drb: 37,
pss: 37,
reb: 37,
diq: 39,
dnk: 39,
drb: 40,
endu: 23,
fg: 34,
ft: 36,
ins: 38,
jmp: 35,
oiq: 38,
pss: 39,
reb: 45,
spd: 37,
stre: 46,
tp: 40,
};

// For correlation across ratings, to ensure some awesome players, but athleticism and skill are independent to
// ensure there are some who are elite in one but not the other
const factorAthleticism = helpers.bound(random.realGauss(1, 0.2), 0.2, 1.2);
const factorShooting = helpers.bound(random.realGauss(1, 0.2), 0.2, 1.2);
const factorSkill = helpers.bound(random.realGauss(1, 0.2), 0.2, 1.2);
const factorIns = helpers.bound(random.realGauss(1, 0.2), 0.2, 1.2);
const factorAthleticism = random.realGauss(1, 0.01);
const factorShooting = random.realGauss(1, 0.11);
const factorSkill = random.realGauss(1, 0.08);
const factorIns = random.realGauss(1, 0.03);
const athleticismRatings = ["stre", "spd", "jmp", "endu", "dnk"];
const shootingRatings = ["ft", "fg", "tp"];
const skillRatings = ["oiq", "diq", "drb", "pss", "reb"]; // ins purposely left out
Expand All @@ -145,7 +145,7 @@ const genRatings = (
}

rawRatings[key] = limitRating(
factor * typeFactor * random.realGauss(rawRatings[key], 3),
factor * typeFactor * random.realGauss(rawRatings[key], 0.8),
);
}

Expand Down
32 changes: 16 additions & 16 deletions src/worker/core/player/ovr.basketball.ts
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -10,22 +10,22 @@ import type { PlayerRatings } from "../../../common/types.basketball";
const ovr = (ratings: PlayerRatings): number => {
// See analysis/player-ovr-basketball
const r =
0.159 * (ratings.hgt - 47.5) +
0.0777 * (ratings.stre - 50.2) +
0.123 * (ratings.spd - 50.8) +
0.051 * (ratings.jmp - 48.7) +
0.0632 * (ratings.endu - 39.9) +
0.0126 * (ratings.ins - 42.4) +
0.0286 * (ratings.dnk - 49.5) +
0.0202 * (ratings.ft - 47.0) +
0.0726 * (ratings.tp - 47.1) +
0.133 * (ratings.oiq - 46.8) +
0.159 * (ratings.diq - 46.7) +
0.059 * (ratings.drb - 54.8) +
0.062 * (ratings.pss - 51.3) +
0.01 * (ratings.fg - 47.0) +
0.01 * (ratings.reb - 51.4) +
48.5;
0.0935 * ratings.diq +
0.042 * ratings.dnk +
0.0969 * ratings.drb +
0.00725 * ratings.endu +
-0.00948 * ratings.fg +
0.0488 * ratings.ft +
0.225 * ratings.hgt +
-0.0143 * ratings.ins +
0.0502 * ratings.jmp +
0.0974 * ratings.oiq +
0.0656 * ratings.pss +
0.0533 * ratings.reb +
0.156 * ratings.spd +
0.0962 * ratings.stre +
0.105 * ratings.tp +
-6.4;

// Fudge factor to keep ovr ratings the same as they used to be (back before 2018 ratings rescaling)
// +8 at 68
Expand Down